Site: The Next Grand Minimum

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The Next Grand Minimum: The effect of volcanoes on climate and climate on volcanoes

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: by Javier The effect of volcanoes on climate The relationship between volcanoes and climate is a very complex one. From reading the media one gets the impression that they are some sort of climatic wild card. They are used to explain the cooling after the Pinatubo eruption, or…

2018-05-11 05:22   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Sunspots Vanishing Faster Than Expected

Dr.Tony Phillips, Spaceweather.com Sunspots are becoming scarce. Very scarce. So far in 2018 the sun has been blank almost 60% of the time, with whole weeks going by without sunspots. Today’s sun, shown here in an image from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, is typical of the featureless solar disk: The fact that sunspots are vanishing …

2018-05-02 00:10   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Are we on the Cusp of the Next Minimum?

26 Apr 2018 – “Worldwide Wine Output Collapses To 60-Year Low, Sparks Fears Of Major Shortage,” says zerohedge.com headline. The Director-General of the International Organization of Vine and Wine, Jean-Marie Aurand, warned that global wine production collapsed in 2017, with a contraction of 8.6 percent compared with 2016. In fact, global wine output dropped to its lowest levels …

2018-04-29 02:46   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Solar Activity Flatlines: Weakest solar cycle in 200 years

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, No Tricks Zone In March our supplier of energy was more inactive than in the previous months. The sunspot number was only 2,5, which is only 8% of what is normal for this month into the average cycle (month 112).Only solar…

2018-04-29 01:35   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Likely coldest April since 1895 – U.S. farmers delay planting crops

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: Farmers are suffering as the cold, wet spring has put a stunning halt to agriculture. Ice Age Farmer Report – 19 Apr 2018 Soil temperatures are below normal, and not conducive to planting yet. “Temperatures going down, greenhouses going up. Crop losses continue globally, and we must all be…

2018-04-27 00:16   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: A conversation with Dr. Willie Soon – on polar bears, the sun, and Earth’s climate

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: Science, Philosophy and Inquiry on a Galactic Scale Contributed by Grégoire Canlorbe © 2017 Publised at WUWT by request of Mr. Canlorbe.    These are the opinions of the author and interviewee.  Dr. Willie Soon is an independent solar physicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who has been studying the…

2018-04-14 23:56   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: It appears Solar Cycle 25 has begun – Solar cycle 24 one of the shortest and weakest ever

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: Evidence of a Cycle 25 sunspot found In our previous post: Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball,  Our resident solar physicist, Dr. Leif Svalgaard commented and provided a link to something reported by his colleagues, something that likely would not have been possible without the…

2018-04-13 05:47   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?: Right now, the sun is a cueball, as seen below in this image today from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and has been without sunspots for 10 days. So far in 2018, 61% of days have been without sunspots. IMAGE: NASA SDO Via Robert Zimmerman, Behind The Black On…

2018-04-12 03:04   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Are El Ninos Fueled By Deep-Sea Geological Heat Flow?

El Niño and La Niña weather patterns have a significant impact on California climate. This illustration shows the drought impacts. Long-term La Niña periods have been associated with long-term droughts in the southwest lasting 200, 90 and 55 years. More specifically severe droughts from AD1021 to 1051, AD1130 to 1180, AD1240 to 1265, AD1360 to …

2018-04-10 22:17   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: A Return to Cooler Growing Seasons?

David Archibald has an interest Mid-west growing season analysis on a guest post at WUWT. Now that the Modern Warm Period is over and we are going back to levels of solar activity typical of the 19th century, it is apposite to look at what the climate was like then and how a return to …

2018-04-05 20:33   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Climate Change’s Greatest Threat to Civilization?

The question is which climate change, global warming or global cooling? Dr. Jeff Masters writing at Weather Underground. Food System Shock: Climate Change’s Greatest Threat to Civilization, argued that the greatest threat of climate change to civilization over the next 40 years is likely to be climate change-amplified extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major …

2018-04-01 22:46   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: The Sun Is Spitting Out Strange Patterns Of Gamma Rays—And No One Knows Why

Scientific American article reported at The Global Warming Policy Forum Our closest star remains an enigma. Every 11 years or so its activity crescendos, creating flares and coronal mass ejections—the plasma-spewing eruptions that shower Earth with charged particles and beautiful auroral displays—but then it decrescendos. The so-called solar maximum fades toward solar minimum, and the …

2018-04-01 04:50   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Are Sunspots and Grand Minimums Linked?

Willis Eschenbach in a guest post at Watts Up With That has some insight in an article on the Tools to Spots the Spots The general thought process is that the lack of sunspots results in lower temperatures on the planet. Long-term loss of sunspots is labeled grand minimums, of which we have identified as …

2018-03-31 17:40   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Miss Global Warming Yet? If Not, Just Wait And You Might

Larry Bell a Space Scientist has some thoughts in a Forbes article. The full article is HERE. We have discussed global warming and the recent pause in other posts. Bell asked if the planet is going to cool rather then warm as Russian Scientist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov claims. Let’s look at this option presented by Bell. …

2018-03-28 02:44   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Cosmic Rays Continue To Intensify As Historic Solar Minimum Approaches

Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc. All indications are that the upcoming solar minimum which is expected to begin in 2019 may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its …

2018-03-18 22:09   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: How Activity On The Sun Could Change The Economy

Forbes: Simon Constable reviews Nature’s Third Cycle: A Story of Sunspots by Arnab Rai Choudhuri. But what has become more apparent based on more recent research from NASA is that we are now in a period of very few or no sunspots. This has coincided with the brutal winter we are going through now. The …

2018-03-17 22:54   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: The Connections Between Cosmic Rays Clouds and Climate

Prof Henrik Svensmark & Jacob Svensmark discuss the connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate with the GWPF’s Benny Peiser and Jonny Bairstow from Energy Live News after his recent presentation in London. Video and slideshow follow. https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2018/03/SvensmarkLondon2018.pdf H/T to Watts Up With That

2018-03-16 17:53   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Solar Variability and Climate Change?

Why has global temperature been increasing since 1980 while solar activity has been decreasing? A paper by Javier, edited by Andy May at WUWT. Conclusion: The answer is that solar variability has multiple effects on climate with different time lags. Total Solar Irradiation variability has a direct effect on temperature within 0-2 years of ~ …

2018-03-13 12:49   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation

Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re getting worse. That’s the conclusion of a new paper just published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously predicted. Full Article is here. How does …

2018-03-05 21:47   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Why a Donation Button?

For years I have posted the best available information I can find on the next grand minimum to share unencumbered by a paywall.  I want to continue to provide free access but would appreciate a small donation to offset administration costs when a particular post(s) peaks your interest.  Your participation is vital to the continued …

2018-02-22 00:36   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Administration

To all those who have been commenting and not seeing their comments.  I apologize for dropping the ball and not checking the right moderation email account. I have posted your comments. Too many emails can be a problem for an aging brain.

2018-02-21 19:31   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Scientists warn of unusually cold Sun . . .

A study by the University of California San Diego has claimed that by 2050, the Sun is expected to become cool. You might think “what’s the big deal,” but remember that this means the solar activities that create the heat of the Sun to sustain life on Earth may diminish. And the last time it …

2018-02-19 16:46   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: New Science 22: Solar TSI leads Earth’s temperature with an 11 year delay

I found this very interesting paper on Jo Nova’s blog. Not sure I understand the details, but want to share with readers. I have always been puzzled by the apparent step function in global temperatures like the one that occurred in 1977. Is delay the answer? Figure 1: Global temperature and 11-year delayed TSI, both …

2018-02-16 14:28   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Forecast for Solar Cycle 25

James A. Marusek has a long, long quest post at Watts Up With That on the future of solar cycle 25 HERE. I found some of the comments on the post most interesting and deserve your attention.  Not everyone agrees with the author. I predict that the intensity of Solar Cycle 25 will be fairly similar …

2018-02-11 22:50   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Longer winters are coming in reality and will partially blunt global warming for 50 years?

Reduced sunspot activity has been observed and indicates the sun is heading into a 50 year reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century. A team of scientists led by research physicist Dan Lubin at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego has created for the first time …

2018-02-08 14:46   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Quasi 500-Year Cycle Signals In Solar Activity

Earth Science Research; Vol. 7, No. 1; 2018 Lihua Ma, Zhiqiang Yin & Yanben Han – National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Abstract Direct observations of solar activity are available for the past four century, so some proxies reflecting solar activity such as 14C, 10Be and geomagnetic variations are used to reconstruct …

2018-02-01 04:44   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Three New (2018) Papers Link Modern Warming And Past Cooling Periods To High, Low Solar Activity

More evidence for grand minimums the Maunder and Dalton. 1. Oliva et al., 2018 Cold period during 1645–1706 (Maunder solar minimum). Cold period during 1810–1838 (Dalton solar minimum). Warm period during the mid-20th and 21st centuries (modern solar maximum). 2. Ukhvatkina et al., 2018 It is well known that cold and warm periods of the climate …

2018-01-30 14:40   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: 7 New (2017) Papers Forecast Global Cooling, Another Little Ice Age Will Begin Soon

Kenneth Richards at No Tricks Zone During 2017, 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity and its modulators (clouds, cosmic rays) have been published in scientific journals. It has been increasingly established that low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays) are highly …

2017-12-29 05:42   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Cosmic Rays Modulate Cloud Cover

A new paper by Henrik Svensmark in Nature Communications. The hypothesis in a nutshell • Cosmic rays, high-energy particles raining down from exploded stars, knock electrons out of air molecules. This produces ions, that is, positive and negative molecules in the atmosphere. • The ions help aerosols – clusters of mainly sulphuric acid and water …

2017-12-19 14:43   Click to comment

The Next Grand Minimum: Weak Solar Activity And La Nina Forebode Cooling Temperatures For The Months Ahead

By P Gosselin on 13. December 2017 The Sun in November 2017 By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated and edited by P Gosselin) In November the sun was unusually quiet with respect to activity. The observed sunspot number (SSN) was merely 5.7, which is only 14% of what is typically normal for month …

2017-12-16 00:52   Click to comment


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