Site: Climate Audit

Slant: Sceptic

Active: yes


Climate Audit is run by Stephen McIntyre a Canadian mathematician, former minerals prospector, and semi-retired mining consultant. Although he himself is modest about his achievements, he is known worldwide for his astute analysis of climate data and forensic critique of the temperature record of the past 1000 years. Amongst his triumphs is his revelation that the so called "hockey-stick" which was the icon of catastrophic global warming was nothing but a statistical trick. Climate Audit was started on Jan 31, 2005. Prior to its startup Steve had some notes at a prior website http://www.climate2003.com (earliest 3/12/2004), which were transferred to the CA blog at its start-up.

Recent Articles

Climate Audit: The effect of Atlantic internal variability on TCR estimation – an unfinished study

A guest article by Frank Bosse (posted by Nic Lewis) A recent paper by the authors Stolpe, Medhaug and Knutti (thereafter S. 17) deals with a longstanding question: By how much are the Global Mean Surface Temperatures (GMST) influenced by the internal variability of the Atlantic (AMV/AMO) and the Pacific (PMV/PDO/IPO)? The authors analyze the

2017-06-19 15:24   Click to comment

Climate Audit: How dependent are GISTEMP trends on the gridding radius used?

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction Global surface temperature (GMST) changes and trends derived from the standard GISTEMP[1] record over its full 1880-2016 length exceed those per the HadCRUT4.5 and NOAA4.0.1 records, by 4% and 7% respectively.  Part of these differences will be due to use of different land and (in the case of

2017-05-18 21:04   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Centenary of the End of the Battle of the Somme

November 18 marks the centenary of the end of the Battle of the Somme, an event that passed essentially unnoticed, though it was a seminal event in the development of modern Canada. Its carnage was over 1.1 million casualties from a combined population (both sides) of about 170 million. (For a scale, there have been approximately

2016-11-19 04:03   Click to comment

Climate Audit: The Destruction of Huma Abedin’s Emails on the Clinton Server and their Surprise Recovery

Despite extraordinarily intense coverage of all aspects of Hillary Clinton’s emails, all commentary to date (to my knowledge), even the underlying FBI Report, has paid little to no attention to the destruction of Huma Abedin’s emails, also stored on the Clinton server.  Further, even with the greatly increased interest in Huma’s emails arising from the discoveries

2016-11-04 19:08   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Was early onset industrial-era warming anthropogenic, as Abram et al. claim?

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction A recent PAGES 2k Consortium paper in Nature,[i] Abram et al., that claims human-induced, greenhouse gas driven warming commenced circa 180 years ago,[ii] has been attracting some attention. The study arrives at its start dates by using a change-point analysis method, SiZer, to assess when the most recent

2016-08-31 18:12   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Re-examining Cook’s Mt Read (Tasmania) Chronology

In today’s post, I’m going to re-examine (or more accurately, examine de novo) Ed Cook’s Mt Read (Tasmania) chronology, a chronology recently used in Gergis et al 2016, Esper et al 2016, as well as numerous multiproxy reconstructions over the past 20 years. Gergis et al 2016  said that they used freshly-calculated “signal-free” RCS chronologies

2016-08-17 05:13   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Esper et al 2016 and the Oroko Swamp

Jan Esper, prominent in early Climate Audit posts as an adamant serial non-archiver, has joined with 17 other tree ring specialists, to publish “Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium” (pdf). This assesses 39 long tree ring temperature reconstructions. The assessment is accompanied by an archive containing 39 reconstruction versions, together with the…

2016-08-13 22:36   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Gergis and Law Dome

In today’s post, I’m going to examine Gergis’ dubious screening out of the Law Dome d18O series, a series that has been of long-standing interest at Climate Audit (tag). Gergis et al 2016 stated that they screened proxies according to significance of the correlation to local gridcell temperature. Law Dome d18O not only had a significant

2016-08-03 15:52   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Joelle Gergis, Data Torturer

In 2012, the then much ballyhoo-ed Australian temperature reconstruction of Gergis et al 2012 mysteriously disappeared from Journal of Climate after being criticized at Climate Audit. Now, more than four years later, a successor article has finally been published. Gergis says that the only problem with the original article was a “typo” in a single

2016-07-21 23:05   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Gergis

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2016-07-21 21:55   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Are energy budget TCR estimates biased low, as Richardson et al (2016) claim?

A guest post by Nic Lewis   Introduction and Summary In a recently published paper (REA16),[1] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher. This claim is based purely on simulations by CMIP5 climate

2016-07-12 16:08   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Deflategate: Controversy is due to Scientist Error

I’ve submitted an article entitled “New Light on Deflategate: Critical Technical Errors” pdf to Journal of Sports Analytics. It identifies and analyzes a previously unnoticed scientific error in the technical analysis included in the Wells Report on Deflategate. The article shows precisely how the “unexplained” deflation occurred prior to Anderson’s measurement and disproves the…

2016-06-07 16:42   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Schmidt’s Histogram Diagram Doesn’t Refute Christy

In my most recent post,  I discussed yet another incident in the long running dispute about the inconsistency between models and observations in the tropical troposphere – Gavin Schmidt’s twitter mugging of John Christy and Judy Curry.   Included in Schmidt’s exchange with Curry was a diagram with a histogram of model runs. In today’s

2016-05-05 22:42   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Gavin Schmidt and Reference Period “Trickery”

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent discussion here by Judy Curry).   Schmidt made the sort of offensive allegations that

2016-04-19 19:21   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Objective Bayesian parameter estimation: Incorporating prior information

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed Bayesian parameter inference in the context of radiocarbon dating. I compared Subjective Bayesian methodology based on a known probability distribution, from which one or more values were drawn at random, with an Objective Bayesian approach using a noninformative prior that produced results

2016-03-21 17:37   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Marvel et al.: GISS did omit land use forcing

A guest article by Nic Lewis I reported in a previous post, here, a number of serious problems that I had identified in Marvel et al. (2015): Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS-E2-R climate model, that estimates of

2016-03-11 23:32   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Bayesian parameter estimation: Radiocarbon dating re-examined

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age of a single artefact from a radiocarbon date determination (measurement) involved

2016-03-02 13:56   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes: The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the atmosphere (motions with a horizontal length scale of 1000 km and time scale of

2016-02-27 15:20   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Disappearing the MWP at Icefields, Alberta

In today’s post, I’m going to critically examine another widely used tree ring chronology: the Icefields (Alberta) MXD RCS chronology of Luckman and Wilson (2005 pdf), used most recently in Wilson et al 2016. I’ll show that the RCS technique used in the LW2005 MXD chronology eliminated high medieval values as a tautology of their method, not

2016-02-15 20:30   Click to comment

Climate Audit: New Light on Gulf of Alaska

Last week, I posted on the effect of ex post site selection on the Gulf of Alaska tree ring chronology used in Wilson et al 2016 (from Wiles et al 2014).  An earlier incarnation of this chronology (in D’Arrigo et al 2016) had had a severe divergence problem, a problem that Wiles et al had purported to

2016-02-14 19:46   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Marvel et al. – Gavin Schmidt admits key error but disputes everything else

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Introduction Gavin Schmidt has finally provided, at the GISS website, the iRF and ERF forcing values for a doubling of CO2 (F2xCO2) in GISS-E2-R, and related to this has made wholesale corrections to the results of Marvel et al. 2015 (MEA15). He has coupled this with a criticism at

2016-02-12 00:02   Click to comment

Climate Audit: A Return to Polar Urals: Wilson et al 2016

Wilson et al 2016, like D’Arrigo et al 2006, includes a ‘Polar Urals’ chronology as one of its components.  Tree ring chronologies from Polar Urals and Yamal have long been a contentious issue at Climate Audit, dating back to the earliest days (see tags Yamal, Polar Urals). Whereas the D’Arrigo et al 2006 version had one

2016-02-08 16:49   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska

The bias arising from ex post selection of sites for regional tree ring chronologies has been a long standing issue at Climate Audit, especially in connection with Briffa’s chronologies for Yamal and Polar Urals (see tag.)  I discussed it most recently in connection with the Central Northwest Territories (CNWT) regional chronology of D’Arrigo et al

2016-02-02 21:34   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Cherry-Picking by D’Arrigo

One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of data, of which ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of sites/data in “regional [treering] chronologies” is one important family.  This was the issue in the original Yamal controversy, in response to which Briffa stated that they “would never select or…

2016-01-29 18:28   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates – update

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are biased low. Marvel et al. reached this

2016-01-21 17:08   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Bob Carter

I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( here here).   He was one of the few people in this field that I regarded as a friend.  He was only a few years older than me and we got along well personally. I will not attempt to comment on

2016-01-19 20:24   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Note: This is a long article: a summary is available here. Introduction In a recent paper[1], NASA scientists led by Kate Marvel and Gavin Schmidt derive the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response of the GISS-E2-R climate model to different types of forcing. They do this by simulations over

2016-01-08 21:42   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Update of Model-Observation Comparisons

The strong El Nino has obviously caused great excitement in the warmist community.  It should also cause any honest skeptic/lukewarmer to re-examine whether observations remain inconsistent with models. In today’s post, I’ll show two comparisons: 1) CMIP5 models (TAS) vs HadCRUT4; 2) CMIP5 models (TLT) vs RSS (UAH is only negligibly different).  For this post,

2016-01-05 17:27   Click to comment

Climate Audit: COP21 Emission Projections

In the wake of COP21, I thought that it would be interesting to compare the respective pathways of China and the U.S (and others) based on official data. I still plan to post on this topic, but obtaining official data on the pathways proved much more difficult than I anticipated.  Leading into the COP21 conference

2015-12-23 19:19   Click to comment

Climate Audit: Balascio et al and the Baffin Island Inconsistency

There was some publicity this week on a paper by Young et al (Science Advances, 2015), which, according to Gifford Miller , whose work has been frequently discussed at CA (see  tag), had supposedly put the “coup de grace on the Medieval Warm Period”, that had been so long wished for by the Team.  

2015-12-10 03:33   Click to comment


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