Site: Tamino's Open Mind

Slant: Warmist

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Recent Articles

Tamino's Open Mind: Open Thread

For continued discussion of things that have gone on a while … Be nice. Advertisements

2018-09-05 19:40   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Arctic Heating

News stories about the Arctic always seem to say either that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, or that it’s warming nearly twice as fast as the global average. That’s not correct. Arctic warming is …

2018-08-29 14:36   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: For Greta

I want to feel safe. When I walk home late at night. When I sit on the subway. When I sleep at night. But I don’t feel safe. How am I supposed to feel safe when I know that we …

2018-08-26 11:28   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Global Warming: Talk About It

From time to time I ask people a question to gauge how much they know about climate change: “What’s your best guess, how much has Earth’s average temperature changed since the year 1900? Since I live in the USA, the …

2018-08-26 02:49   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Global Warming: How Long Do We Have Left?

It’s already bad. But when will things get so bad that it is obviously — obviously — the worst problem in the world? How long until we go over the cliff? That depends on how much we’ve heated up already, …

2018-08-24 01:09   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: I am not a climate scientist

Reader “Deltaeus” expressed his frustration about many aspects of the “debate” about climate change, including the fact that there are shallow arguments all over the place. I’d like to respond to some of his comments. First let me say that …

2018-08-22 18:02   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Don’t Settle for Easy Answers about Global Warming

You are not a dummy. But climate deniers treat you that way. That’s because they know that easy answers, the simpleton’s way of dealing with things, is so easy to digest and internalize that even you, and other smart people …

2018-08-18 00:33   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: New Prediction Paper

Some of my long-time readers have expressed an interest in a recent paper which attempts to predict how global temperature will change over the next few years, A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global …

2018-08-18 00:33   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: God Bless the Queen

May she rest in peace. Advertisements

2018-08-17 12:06   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Statistics: not for Cliff Mass

It all started with Cliff Mass saying “… with huge transient peaks and troughs (see below). With such variability …” when talking about CalFire data of area burned by wildfire in California from 1987 through 2016. His comment led me …

2018-08-13 12:38   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Year of Wildfires

As bad as it has been, it’s going to get worse. Advertisements

2018-08-13 00:06   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Questions for Cliff Mass

In response to my post, you said my analysis is “very weak” and that I used “an inappropriate statistical approach that did not consider the variability of the time series.” The Theil-Sen trend estimate is robust, in fact it’s what …

2018-08-11 17:09   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Cliff Mass puts a brown paper bag on your doorstep … sets it on fire … and rings the doorbell

Cliff Mass has joined the ranks of those who want you to believe that California’s wildfire problem isn’t getting worse. He starts (his blog post here) by saying that the number of fires in California has decreased over the last …

2018-08-11 00:12   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., also known as the “lower 48 states” (I’ll just …

2018-08-08 16:47   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: PBS Newshour on horrific heat and fire

Pay careful attention to Mike Mann; when asked about “this is the new normal,” he replies “It’s actually worse than that.” Advertisements

2018-08-06 23:48   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Twit-in-chief Tweets

We all know that Californians are suffering from terrible wildfires. Thousands of buildings have been destroyed. Many have lost their lives, including firefighters, including a great-grandmother who died with her great-grandchildren. It is a tragedy. So what did Donald Trump, …

2018-08-06 17:04   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: California Wildfires

With the devastating wildfires terrorizing California, climate deniers are doing everything they can to try to persuade people that it’s no big deal, and even the big deals have nothing to do with man-made climate change. To believe them, you …

2018-08-02 15:19   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Climate Disasters: Billions and Billions of Dollars

NCEI (the National Center for Environmental Information) has some fascinating data about the number, and cost, of billion-dollar climate related disasters in the U.S. since 1980. Cost estimates are adjusted for CEI (the Consumer Price Index) in order to make …

2018-08-02 00:40   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Global Warming: Good Video on the Basics

I happened across a video about global warming basics, which I think is pretty good. What’s your opinion? Advertisements

2018-08-01 18:30   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: This is what Climate Change Looks Like

As bad as this is … it’s going to get worse. Advertisements

2018-07-31 11:52   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Why use temperature Anomaly?

Some people ask “Why use temperature anomaly rather than just temperature?” because they are curious, maybe even confused about it, and want to learn. Some climate deniers claim that doing so is a mistake which invalidates trend analysis, in part …

2018-07-29 21:42   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Stupid Shit

Imagine every single report ever about the link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer, from the 1960s when the surgeon general’s report came out up to the present day, beginning with the statement that “No single case of lung cancer …

2018-07-27 00:11   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: A Human-Caused Signal is Now Evident has an interesting article about recent research by Santer et al. (2018, Science 361, 245) into how the seasonal cycle of temperature has changed. It’s a topic we’ve looked at recently for surface temperature in the USA. Santer et …

2018-07-26 11:48   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Global Warming: Let It Snow

With the oppressive heat striking across the world, I thought I might provide a little relief to readers plagued by high temperatures by discussing something they might welcome right about now: snow. Snow is crucially important in many regions because …

2018-07-23 19:33   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Heat Waves Gone Wild

This summer we haven’t just had heat waves, we’ve seen them plaguing vast areas around the northern hemisphere. Intense heat in Sweden sparked an epidemic of wildfires in their drought-stricken forests, so bad that they had to ask other nations …

2018-07-23 16:23   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Global Warming Naive

At a town hall meeting near Philadelphia, 18-year-old Rose Strauss had a question for Scott Wagner, the Republican candidate for governor of Pennsylvania: You’ve said that climate change is a result of people’s body heat, and are refusing to take …

2018-07-22 01:14   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Climate Change USA: Seasons

We’ve been looking at patterns of climate change in the conterminous USA (the “lower 48 states”) recently. Let’s see what’s been happening in the different seasons of the year. Specifically, let’s find out how temperature has been changing since 1985, …

2018-07-22 00:08   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Thank You

It’s easy to think the world is headed for disaster, and we can’t stop it. Ask those who suffered through the intense heat wave that hit California and the wildfires that came along with it. Ask those who removed a …

2018-07-21 11:51   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: An Issue of Survival


2018-07-21 03:02   Click to comment

Tamino's Open Mind: Time to Listen


2018-07-20 19:58   Click to comment

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