Site: Variable Variability

Slant: Warmist

Active: yes

Recent Articles

Variable Variability : Is nitpicking a climate doomsday warning allowed?

Journalist and amateur mass-psychic David Wallace-Wells published an article in the New York Magazine titled: "The Uninhabitable Earth - Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think."Michael Mann responded on Facebook as one of the first scientists. He disliked the "doomist framing" and noted several obvious inaccuracies at the top…

Today: 12:31   Click to comment

Variable Variability : How to talk about climate doomsday scenarios

David Wallace-Wells wrote a 7000 word cover story in New York Magazine on how unchecked climate change may make the Earth uninhabitable. With 2.5 million readers this longread was the most read article in the magazine's history. That shows the impact a well written article can have. It also point to a change in the mood in America. Since Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement, happy to risk…

2017-07-19 17:43   Click to comment

Variable Variability : An ignorant proposal for a BEST project rip-off

It looks like the "Competitive Enterprise Institute" (CEI) just conned their dark money overlords with a stupid report rehashing all the same old claims of the mitigation sceptical movement the BEST project of Richard Muller already studied as a Red Team. Conservative physics professor Richard Muller claimed that before his BEST project he "did not know whether global warming was real, was…

2017-07-10 21:10   Click to comment

Variable Variability : The Trump administration proposes a new scientific method just for climate studies

What could possibly go wrong?[[Scott Pruitt]] is the former Oklahoma Attorney General who copied and pasted letters for pro-pollution lobbyists onto his letter head. Much of his previous work was devoted to suing the EPA. Now he works for the big money donors as head of the EPA. This Scott Pruitt is allegedly working on formulating a new scientific method to be used for studying climate change…

2017-07-02 20:46   Click to comment

Variable Variability : On the recent warming explosion

"Incidentally, when in the journal Science in 2007 we pointed to the exceptionally large warming trend of the preceding 16 years, which was at the upper end of the [climate] model range, nobody cared, because there is no powerful lobby trying to exaggerate global warming.""And of course in our paper we named natural intrinsic variability as the most likely reason. But when a trend at the lower…

2017-06-20 15:35   Click to comment

Variable Variability : My unsolicited advice for a UK government

After my spectacular success as UK election pollster let my try my luck as UK political adviser. Offering outsider continental perspective from a citizen of a countries where coalition governments are normal.The electoral results could not have been more complicated. The conservatives lost their majority. Against British custom collaboration is necessary.Wikipedia: United Kingdom general…

2017-06-11 20:23   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Comrade Trend predicts the UK general election outcome

Poll whisperer Nate Silver himself just predicted that in the UK elections the conservatives would win by 7 %. My prediction is 2 %.The prediction of Silver is a simple average of the last polls of the ten main polling organisations. He uses the same data as I do, kindly gathered by the volunteers of Wikipedia, who also made the plot below.The statistics normally used to estimate the outcome…

2017-06-06 03:26   Click to comment

Variable Variability : The IPCC underestimates global warming

A month ago the New York Times insulted its subscribers with a climate change column by Bret Stephens, their new hire from the Wall Street Journal. The bizarre text was mostly a sequence of claims that did not follow from the arguments presented. The column also contained one fact. Which was wrong and later corrected. Stephens claimed:Anyone who has read the 2014 report of the…

2017-05-30 13:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Trump's I-am-not-a-witch moment

Dear Director Comey,...While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau....Donald J. TrumpDonald, even if Comey were prime evil himself, you can not fire someone who is investigating you. (Even if Democrats did or…

2017-05-11 19:38   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Red Cheeks Team

The idea has been simmering a few years, but now that their president is in office, the mitigation sceptical movement is increasingly pushing the idea of a "Red Team". In the last "hearing" of Lamar Smith in US House of Representatives, John Christy and Judith Curry repeated the claim that climate science needs a "Red Team". Roger Pielke Sr. contributes some tweets. In Murdoch's Wall Street…

2017-04-30 16:47   Click to comment

Variable Variability : "Hiatus": Signal and Variability

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill just summarized the statistical evidence for the mirage people call the "pause" of global warming in their new article: "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls."The Open Access paper is clearly written; any natural scientist should be able to follow the arguments. The most important part may be a clear explanation of the…

2017-04-24 20:31   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Upcoming meetings for homogenisation scientists

There are several new meetings coming up that may be interesting for people working on homogenisation. If you know of more, please write a comment. Please note that the abstract submission deadline for EMS is already in 11 days.Urban climate summer school21-26 August 2017 | Bucharest, Romania. Registration deadline: 15 May 2017Climate monitoring; data rescue, management, quality and…

2017-04-10 22:42   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Did the lack of an election threshold save The Netherlands?

The Netherlands. Also known as flat Switzerland and as the inventors of the stock market crash. A country you think of so little that we were surprised by the international attention for the Dutch election last week. Although The Netherlands is the 17th economy in the world we are used to being ignored,* typically not making any trouble. But this time the three part question was whether after…

2017-03-19 18:55   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Global warming in the original Celsius scale

A short post with a question of counterfactual history.The Celsius temperature scale developed by Anders Celsius (1701–1744) himself had 0 °C at the boiling point of water and freezing was 100 °C. It had the advantage that negative numbers would not occur in normal use. Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit (1686–1736) achieved this for his temperature scale by choosing the lowest temperature in his…

2017-03-05 13:41   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Politics is not rational

Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election because people are not rational. Except for racists and millionaires it would have been in the best interest of everyone to have voted for Clinton. But we are not rational, we do not always look at our best interests. Real humans are not homo economii.That includes me. As a scientist it is my job to keep a cool head. I hope you will excuse me for…

2017-02-21 16:00   Click to comment

Variable Variability : David Rose's alternative reality in the Daily Mail

Peek-a-boo! Joanna Krupa shows off her stunning figure in see-through mesh dress over black underwearBottoms up! Perrie Edwards sizzles in plunging leotard as Little Mix flaunt their enviable figures in skimpy one-piecesBum's the word! Lottie Moss flaunts her pert derriere in a skimpy thong as she strips off for steamy selfieSorry about those titles. They provide the fitting context right next…

2017-02-05 04:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : With some programing skills you can compute global mean temperatures yourself

This is a guest post by citizen scientist Ron Roeland (not his real name, but I like alliteration for some reason). Being an actually sceptical person, he decided to compute the global mean land temperature from station observations himself. He could reproduce the results of the main scientific groups that compute this signal and, new for me, while studying the data noticed how important the…

2017-01-30 15:17   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Cranberry picking short-term temperature trends

If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspectJohn Grego, professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.If you choose your start points and your end points carefully enough you can make it look as if any trend you want is happening.Christopher Monckton, sacked UKIP climate change spokesman & former chair…

2017-01-16 17:32   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Much ado about NOAAthing

I know NOAAthing.This post is about nothing. Nearly nothing. But when I found this title I had to write it.Once upon a time in America there were some political activists who claimed that global warming had stopped. These were the moderate voices, with many people in this movement saying that an ice age is just around the corner. Others said global warming paused, hiatused or slowed down. I…

2017-01-08 13:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Budapest Seminar on Homogenization and Quality Control

FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT9TH SEMINAR ON HOMOGENIZATION ANDQUALITY CONTROL IN CLIMATOLOGICAL DATABASESAND 4TH CONFERENCE ON SPATIAL INTERPOLATION TECHNIQUES IN CLIMATOLOGY AND METEOROLOGYBUDAPEST, HUNGARY3 – 7 April 2017Organized by the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZSupported by WMOBackgroundThe first eight Seminars for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases as well…

2017-01-03 15:16   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Clickbait articles dividing an already divided country even more

Yougov and The Economist just published a poll on political conspiracy theories that was designed to produce outrage and clicks on stories how stupid the other tribe is and how we rational people are above that. Secular Talk, a popular high-quality YouTube pundit, made two stories out of it: "50% Of Dems Think 'Russia Tampered With Vote Tallies' To Elect Trump" and "Nearly Half Of Trump Voters…

2016-12-31 19:04   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Can Trump fiddle with climate observations?

Some people worry about the Trump administration fiddling with climate data to get politically correct trends. There is a lot to worry about. This is not one of them. Raw dataA Trump stooge could not fiddle with the raw data because there are many organisations that also have a copy. Old data can be found in the annual reports of the weather services. New data in their databases and in many…

2016-12-24 15:10   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Scott Adams: The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science

Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, wrote today about how difficult it is for a non-expert to judge science and especially climate science. He argues that for a non-expert it is normally a good idea to follow the majority of scientists. I agree. Even as a scientist I do this for topics where I am not an expert and do not have to time to go into detail. You cannot live without placing trust…

2016-12-06 23:18   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Statistically significant trends - Short-term temperature trend are more uncertain than you probably think

Yellowknife, Canada, where the annual mean temperature is zero degrees Celsius.In times of publish or perish, it can be tempting to put "hiatus" in your title and publish an average article on climate variability in one of the prestigious Nature journals. But my impression is that this does not explain all of the enthusiasm for short-term trends. Humans are greedy pattern detectors: it is…

2016-11-30 15:15   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Climate nightmares in America, dreams in Marrakesh

The voices of hate in this climate "debate" will be pleased to know that their enemy Michael Mann had "nightmares of a dystopian future — think Soylent Green or Mad Max". Mann told this Fusion for their story titled "These people are literally having climate change nightmares". In the same story Dahr Jamail, a reporter who covers climate change, also recalls a quite dramatic nightmare: "It…

2016-11-19 14:39   Click to comment

Variable Variability : A view from Germany on Trump's America

It is a dreary dark rainy cold day in Bonn. The right setting for the catastrophe that just happened in America.German children's radio tries to explain why the adults are freaking out. They said Trump main claim was to make America great again, which everyone can read into it what they like and is a sign for his lack of clear policies. And they told the kids he denies climate change and wants…

2016-11-10 18:33   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Greens, progressives: No, Clinton and Trump are not the same

The US media is a catastrophic failure and is about to create a catastrophe this Tuesday. The focus is on personalities, mud slinging and conflict, which attract attention and are safe he-said she-said topics for the media. While there is nearly no attention for policy, which makes it harder to avoid taking a position. Sometimes single policies are contrasted with each other, but overviews are…

2016-11-04 22:47   Click to comment

Variable Variability : A stable global climate reference network

Historical climate data contains inhomogeneities, for example due to changes in the instrumentation or the surrounding. Removing these inhomogeneities to get more accurate estimates of how much the Earth has actually warmed is a really interesting problem. I love the statistical homogenization algorithms we use for this; I am a sucker for beautiful algorithms. As an observationalist it is…

2016-10-10 17:41   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Global Warming goes viral

NOAA's Climate Monotoring Chief Deke Arndt tweeted in May this year: "I look at this stuff every day and it still astonishes me" and showed this graph. Note, the locally typical units.Honey, I broke the graph. Again.How the temperature has risen the last years is amazing. The prediction made this week for 2016 by Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS does not look good. With a bit of British…

2016-09-20 19:16   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Publish or perish is illegal in Germany, for good reason

Had Albert Einstein died just after his wonder year 1905 he would only have had a few publications on special relativity, the equivalence of mass and energy, Brownian motion and Photoelectric Effect on his name and would nowadays be seen as a mediocre researcher. He got the Nobel prize in 1921 "for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the…

2016-09-13 10:26   Click to comment


comments powered by Disqus
1163