Site: Variable Variability

Slant: Warmist

Active: yes

Recent Articles

Variable Variability : "Hiatus": Signal and Variability

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill just summarized the statistical evidence for the mirage people call the "pause" of global warming in their new article: "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls."The Open Access paper is clearly written; any natural scientist should be able to follow the arguments. The most important part may be a clear explanation of the…

2017-04-24 20:31   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Upcoming meetings for homogenisation scientists

There are several new meetings coming up that may be interesting for people working on homogenisation. If you know of more, please write a comment. Please note that the abstract submission deadline for EMS is already in 11 days.Urban climate summer school21-26 August 2017 | Bucharest, Romania. Registration deadline: 15 May 2017Climate monitoring; data rescue, management, quality and…

2017-04-10 22:42   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Did the lack of an election threshold save The Netherlands?

The Netherlands. Also known as flat Switzerland and as the inventors of the stock market crash. A country you think of so little that we were surprised by the international attention for the Dutch election last week. Although The Netherlands is the 17th economy in the world we are used to being ignored,* typically not making any trouble. But this time the three part question was whether after…

2017-03-19 18:55   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Global warming in the original Celsius scale

A short post with a question of counterfactual history.The Celsius temperature scale developed by Anders Celsius (1701–1744) himself had 0 °C at the boiling point of water and freezing was 100 °C. It had the advantage that negative numbers would not occur in normal use. Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit (1686–1736) achieved this for his temperature scale by choosing the lowest temperature in his…

2017-03-05 13:41   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Politics is not rational

Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election because people are not rational. Except for racists and millionaires it would have been in the best interest of everyone to have voted for Clinton. But we are not rational, we do not always look at our best interests. Real humans are not homo economii.That includes me. As a scientist it is my job to keep a cool head. I hope you will excuse me for…

2017-02-21 16:00   Click to comment

Variable Variability : David Rose's alternative reality in the Daily Mail

Peek-a-boo! Joanna Krupa shows off her stunning figure in see-through mesh dress over black underwearBottoms up! Perrie Edwards sizzles in plunging leotard as Little Mix flaunt their enviable figures in skimpy one-piecesBum's the word! Lottie Moss flaunts her pert derriere in a skimpy thong as she strips off for steamy selfieSorry about those titles. They provide the fitting context right next…

2017-02-05 04:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : With some programing skills you can compute global mean temperatures yourself

This is a guest post by citizen scientist Ron Roeland (not his real name, but I like alliteration for some reason). Being an actually sceptical person, he decided to compute the global mean land temperature from station observations himself. He could reproduce the results of the main scientific groups that compute this signal and, new for me, while studying the data noticed how important the…

2017-01-30 15:17   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Cranberry picking short-term temperature trends

If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspectJohn Grego, professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.If you choose your start points and your end points carefully enough you can make it look as if any trend you want is happening.Christopher Monckton, sacked UKIP climate change spokesman & former chair…

2017-01-16 17:32   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Much ado about NOAAthing

I know NOAAthing.This post is about nothing. Nearly nothing. But when I found this title I had to write it.Once upon a time in America there were some political activists who claimed that global warming had stopped. These were the moderate voices, with many people in this movement saying that an ice age is just around the corner. Others said global warming paused, hiatused or slowed down. I…

2017-01-08 13:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Budapest Seminar on Homogenization and Quality Control

FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT9TH SEMINAR ON HOMOGENIZATION ANDQUALITY CONTROL IN CLIMATOLOGICAL DATABASESAND 4TH CONFERENCE ON SPATIAL INTERPOLATION TECHNIQUES IN CLIMATOLOGY AND METEOROLOGYBUDAPEST, HUNGARY3 – 7 April 2017Organized by the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZSupported by WMOBackgroundThe first eight Seminars for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases as well…

2017-01-03 15:16   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Clickbait articles dividing an already divided country even more

Yougov and The Economist just published a poll on political conspiracy theories that was designed to produce outrage and clicks on stories how stupid the other tribe is and how we rational people are above that. Secular Talk, a popular high-quality YouTube pundit, made two stories out of it: "50% Of Dems Think 'Russia Tampered With Vote Tallies' To Elect Trump" and "Nearly Half Of Trump Voters…

2016-12-31 19:04   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Can Trump fiddle with climate observations?

Some people worry about the Trump administration fiddling with climate data to get politically correct trends. There is a lot to worry about. This is not one of them. Raw dataA Trump stooge could not fiddle with the raw data because there are many organisations that also have a copy. Old data can be found in the annual reports of the weather services. New data in their databases and in many…

2016-12-24 15:10   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Scott Adams: The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science

Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, wrote today about how difficult it is for a non-expert to judge science and especially climate science. He argues that for a non-expert it is normally a good idea to follow the majority of scientists. I agree. Even as a scientist I do this for topics where I am not an expert and do not have to time to go into detail. You cannot live without placing trust…

2016-12-06 23:18   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Statistically significant trends - Short-term temperature trend are more uncertain than you probably think

Yellowknife, Canada, where the annual mean temperature is zero degrees Celsius.In times of publish or perish, it can be tempting to put "hiatus" in your title and publish an average article on climate variability in one of the prestigious Nature journals. But my impression is that this does not explain all of the enthusiasm for short-term trends. Humans are greedy pattern detectors: it is…

2016-11-30 15:15   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Climate nightmares in America, dreams in Marrakesh

The voices of hate in this climate "debate" will be pleased to know that their enemy Michael Mann had "nightmares of a dystopian future — think Soylent Green or Mad Max". Mann told this Fusion for their story titled "These people are literally having climate change nightmares". In the same story Dahr Jamail, a reporter who covers climate change, also recalls a quite dramatic nightmare: "It…

2016-11-19 14:39   Click to comment

Variable Variability : A view from Germany on Trump's America

It is a dreary dark rainy cold day in Bonn. The right setting for the catastrophe that just happened in America.German children's radio tries to explain why the adults are freaking out. They said Trump main claim was to make America great again, which everyone can read into it what they like and is a sign for his lack of clear policies. And they told the kids he denies climate change and wants…

2016-11-10 18:33   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Greens, progressives: No, Clinton and Trump are not the same

The US media is a catastrophic failure and is about to create a catastrophe this Tuesday. The focus is on personalities, mud slinging and conflict, which attract attention and are safe he-said she-said topics for the media. While there is nearly no attention for policy, which makes it harder to avoid taking a position. Sometimes single policies are contrasted with each other, but overviews are…

2016-11-04 22:47   Click to comment

Variable Variability : A stable global climate reference network

Historical climate data contains inhomogeneities, for example due to changes in the instrumentation or the surrounding. Removing these inhomogeneities to get more accurate estimates of how much the Earth has actually warmed is a really interesting problem. I love the statistical homogenization algorithms we use for this; I am a sucker for beautiful algorithms. As an observationalist it is…

2016-10-10 17:41   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Global Warming goes viral

NOAA's Climate Monotoring Chief Deke Arndt tweeted in May this year: "I look at this stuff every day and it still astonishes me" and showed this graph. Note, the locally typical units.Honey, I broke the graph. Again.How the temperature has risen the last years is amazing. The prediction made this week for 2016 by Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS does not look good. With a bit of British…

2016-09-20 19:16   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Publish or perish is illegal in Germany, for good reason

Had Albert Einstein died just after his wonder year 1905 he would only have had a few publications on special relativity, the equivalence of mass and energy, Brownian motion and Photoelectric Effect on his name and would nowadays be seen as a mediocre researcher. He got the Nobel prize in 1921 "for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the…

2016-09-13 10:26   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Believe me, the GOP needs to open itself to rational debate

Major Tom (Coming Home)Peter Schilling4, 3, 2, 1Earth below usDrifting, fallingFloating weightlessCalling, calling homeSecond stage is cutWe're now in orbitStabilizers up,Runnning perfectStarting to collectRequested dataWhat will it affectWhen all is done?Thinks Major TomBack at ground control,There is a problemGo to rockets fullNot respondingHello Major Tom.Are you receiving?Turn the…

2016-09-04 19:26   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Blair Trewin's epic journey to 112 Australian weather stations

Blair Trewin is a wonderful character and one of the leading researchers of the homogenization community. He works at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and created their high-quality homogenized datasets. He also developed a correction method for daily temperature observations that is probably the best we currently have. Fitting to his scientific love of homogenization, he has gone on…

2016-08-29 16:35   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming

[[Francis Bacon]]In its time it was huge progress that Francis Bacon stressed the importance of observations. Even if he did not do that much science himself, his advocacy for the Baconian (scientific) method, gave him a place as one of the fathers of modern science together with Nicolaus Copernicus and Isaac Newton.However, you can also become too fundamentalist about empiricism. Modern…

2016-08-21 15:23   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Downscaling temperature fields with genetic programming

This blog is not called Variable Variability for nothing. Variability is the most fascinating aspect of the climate system. Like a fractal you can zoom in and out of a temperature signal and keep on finding interesting patterns. The same goes for wind, humidity, precipitation and clouds. This beauty was one of the reasons why I changed from physics to the atmospheric sciences, not being aware…

2016-08-15 15:28   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Climate model ensembles of opportunity and tuning

2016-08-03 01:49   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Do not ban homoeopathy in the name of Science

The BBC reports on a petition to ban homoeopathy for pets, which is already singed by a 1000 British vets. The justification for this is that homoeopathy does not work. The vet who started the petition said: "It's been shown that homeopathy doesn't work, so it probably shouldn't be offered any more even if it is offered with good intentions."Classical homoeopathy naturally does not work. It…

2016-07-14 17:56   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Is it time to freak out about the climate sensitivity estimates from energy budget models?

Estimates of climate sensitivity using simple energy budget models tended to produce lower values than many other methods. Consequently they were loved by the mitigation sceptical movement, who seemed to regard these as the most robust of all methods. Part of their argument is the claim that these are “empirical” estimates, conveniently forgetting the simple statistical model the method…

2016-07-07 14:28   Click to comment

Variable Variability : The EU, refugees and migration

Brexit, Geert Wilders, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and thousands of refugees drowning in the Mediterranean. We should talk about the EU, refugees and migration. EuropeThe European Union started as a peace project, as a collaboration based on two industries that were crucial for war: coal and iron. It is often still sold as a peace project. That is certainly an aspect, but I think that this…

2016-06-30 08:02   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Four wonderful climate science podcasts you need to know

[UPDATE: How is this Buzzfeed headline?]For some years I was a regular listener of EconTalk, where the economist Russ Roberts would interview a colleague, typically about a recent book or article. Roberts is a staunch libertarian and the interviews with fellow libertarians are worse than listening in on drunk men agreeing with each other in a bar at 4am, but many other interviews with…

2016-06-23 23:41   Click to comment

Variable Variability : Grassroots scientific publishing

These were the weeks of peer review. Sophie Lewis wrote her farewell to peer reviewing. Climate Feedback is making it easy for scientists to review journalistic articles with nifty new annotation technology. And Carbon Brief showed that while there is a grey area, it is pretty easy to distinguish between science and nonsense in the climate "debate", which is one of the functions of peer…

2016-05-08 09:12   Click to comment


comments powered by Disqus
1037