Site: Doug McNeall's blog

Slant: Warmist

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Recent Articles

Doug McNeall's blog: More on surviving social media

I updated this talk [download slides] from last summer (time flies!), offering some personal thoughts on surviving a sometimes-hostile social media environment. [The sound gets better after I decide to hold the tiny mic rather than have it stuck in my shirt.] I was talking to my peers this time, so the mood is somewhat

2018-04-30 14:51   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: Surviving the climate communications environment

The title was carefully chosen. On Monday, I gave a talk to around 100 engaged and engaging students taking part in the University of Exeter’s Grand Challenge 2017. The students are introduced to a number of global challenges, and expected to work in interdisciplinary groups to come up with solutions. This year, climate change features

2017-06-09 09:00   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: Sensitivity analysis with R

After last week’s post, I thought it might be useful to have some practical examples of how to do sensitivity analysis (SA) of complex models (like climate models) with an emulator. SA is one of those things that everyone wants to do at some point, and I’ll be able to point people here for code

2017-02-17 11:11   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis

I use one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis all the time, but it’s not without it’s dangers. It looks like developers are ahead of the statisticians in useful illustrative examples. @ThePracticalDev @testobsessed pic.twitter.com/uKvhzoEPF7 — George Dinwiddie (@gdinwiddie) January 23, 2016 2 unit tests. 0 integration tests pic.twitter.com/V2Z9F4G1sJ — The Practical Dev (@ThePracticalDev) January…

2017-02-09 16:33   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: Choosing your next design point

You can use the R package DiceOptim to choose the next point to run your expensive simulator. Here’s a gif of function EGO.nsteps() in action, choosing one point at a time, with an initial design of three points.   It doesn’t behave in exactly the way I expected, putting lots of points in that well

2016-12-16 11:54   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: Gaussian process emulator example

Here’s a little Gaussian process emulator example that I cooked up using the R package DiceKriging. The function is Higdon02, from this useful archive on simulation experiments. I’ve used a constant to initiate the model fit on the smallest data set: km(form=~1, ...) rather than a linear term: km(form=~., ...) as otherwise you end up

2016-12-13 16:20   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: Behind the scenes at the new podcast from the Met Office

I’m pretty excited to be part of the regular team for the new Met Office podcast, Mostly Weather. We’re trying to capture a fun, relaxed and hopefully interesting discussion of science, history and little-known facts about weather and climate. I’d like to think that we hit the nerdy-but-accessible sweet spot. We’ve a couple of episodes

2015-12-15 15:16   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: The best climate science journals (update)

What are the best/most influential/most read/most overrated journals in climate science? This turns out to be quite hard to judge, as climate science these days can seemingly include everything from economics, to biochemistry, and back to psychology. Google Scholar has a list of what it thinks are the best journals in atmospheric science. Here is

2015-11-11 14:54   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: More ways to win at twitter

Here is a further list of ways to win at Twitter*. Some other ways can be found here. 7. Be heard Demand that your opponent reads everything that you ever wrote, on any subject. If they haven’t, or they won’t, chide them for being ignorant or narrow minded as appropriate. 8. Victim Bully Victim bully.

2015-08-27 08:33   Click to comment

Doug McNeall's blog: On the existence of the hiatus

A new paper by Karl et al. in Science makes a spirited argument that there really is no “hiatus” or “slowdown” in global surface temperature warming. The paper focuses on some of the more technical details of bias correction in the temperature data record, rather than on the dynamics of the climate. It is from a

2015-06-04 14:01   Click to comment


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