Site: Roy Spencer

Slant: Sceptic

Active: yes

This is the website of Roy Spencer. Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Recent Articles

Roy Spencer: UAH Shooting Investigation Update, and Thanks

John Christy met with the chief of police at UAH today, and I’m happy to report that, contrary to initial reports, the investigation into the seven shots fired into our building has not been dropped. UAH has also coordinated with other law enforcement, which is good. I’d like to thank everyone who made the effort

2017-04-27 22:08   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Update on Possible Ecoterror Attack at UAH

Ecoterrorism. Eco-terrorism is defined by the Federal Bureau of Investigation as “the use or threatened use of violence of a criminal nature against people or property by an environmentally oriented, subnational group for environmental-political reasons, or aimed at an audience beyond the target, often of a symbolic nature.” -Wikipedia It appears that at least some

2017-04-26 13:12   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Shots Fired into the Christy/Spencer Building at UAH

A total of seven shots were fired into our National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) building here at UAH over the weekend. All bullets hit the 4th floor, which is where John Christy’s office is (my office is in another part of the building). Given that this was Earth Day weekend, with a March

2017-04-24 18:03   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Time Lapse of Asteroid 2014 JO25

Despite some clouds, I was able to capture time lapse video of Asteroid 2014 JO25 passing by last night. Nearly 2 hours of time exposure photos are compressed into 23 seconds, from 9:20 p.m. until 11:09 p.m. CDT (watch full-screen, and make sure the highest definition is enabled, 1080p): The asteroid is traveling from near

2017-04-20 13:52   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Half-mile Wide Asteroid Close Approach on Wednesday

An asteroid capable of destroying Washington D.C. and New York City at the same time will be making its closest approach to Earth on April 19. At a half-mile wide, it will have over 30,000 times as much mass as the 2013 meteor which exploded over Russia in 2013: The current asteroid, called “2014 JO25“,

2017-04-18 14:42   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Why United is in Legal Trouble Over Removing a Passenger

By now, most people have heard of the passenger on a United Express flight that was bloodied and forcibly removed from a flight in Chicago so that airline employees could make it to Louisville to support another flight there. The event has caused a public relations nightmare for United, whose CEO initially defended his employees

2017-04-12 14:05   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2017: +0.19 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2017 was +0.19 deg. C, down from the February, 2017 value of +0.35 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM.

2017-04-03 14:06   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Trump’s Rollback of EPA Overreach: What No One is Talking About

President Trump’s actions yesterday to rein in the EPA on a number of fronts involves the usual tension between environment and prosperity. Trump has rightly asserted that we can have both a relatively clean environment and prosperity, but this falls on deaf ears in the environmental community. His actions are painted as Republican’s desire to

2017-03-29 14:51   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Global Warming Debate Spectrum

In the debate arena, the public likes simple narratives. If the narrative supports their pre-conceived notions, they like it even better. On technical issues which have major public policy impact, however, the nuances can be very important even if they are not easily explained or grasped. The scientific nuances in the climate change realm are

2017-03-24 14:38   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Russians Hacked our Winter Weather

Now that winter has officially ended, I thought it would be useful to address the central role that Russia played in ending California’s drought, as well as in the unusually warm conditions over the eastern U.S. this past winter. First, let’s address the record California rains and mountain snowpack. While such a wet winter usually

2017-03-23 13:18   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Brace Yourselves: Snowstorm to Breed Global Warming Hysteria

With apologies to Benjamin Franklin, only three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and blaming bad weather on global warming. By mid-week this week, newspaper and website stories will be reporting that climate experts (e.g. Al Gore, Bill Nye) have now blamed the historic snowstorm and unseasonable cold now descending on New England on

2017-03-13 18:16   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Version 6 Dataset Paper Published Online

At long last, our Version 6 dataset paper has been published, with the online version available as of today: UAH Version 6 Global Satellite Temperature Products: Methodology and Results We have been working with NCEI (old NCDC) to get the dataset and code archived there (contrary to some claims, our Version 5.6 dataset and code

2017-03-07 18:12   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2017: +0.35 deg. C.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February 2017 was +0.35 deg. C, up a little from the January value of +0.30 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 26 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM.

2017-03-02 12:37   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Fan Mail

Once in a while I share “fan mail” I get in response to my blog, and I thought the following example was unusually interesting. I won’t bother to rebut the mix of misrepresentations, misinformation, etc. This is more for entertainment value. WARNING: The language in the following is, shall we say, colorful. Don’t read any

2017-02-18 12:59   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Oroville Dam: Crisis Eases, Emergency Spillway Repairs in Progress

With the evacuation order lifted last evening, and ~185,000 residents returning to their homes in Oroville and surrounding communities, emergency repairs continue around the clock on the damaged emergency spillway at Oroville Dam. Yesterday morning (Feb. 14), a concrete pumper and boulders were being used to patch the main erosion features that developed when the

2017-02-15 14:58   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Oroville Dam Crisis: What Happened, What’s Next?

After watching the Oroville Dam crisis evolve over the last several days, and reading various experts’ opinions about what might be going on both with both the facility itself and behind the scenes decision-making, I thought it might be time to step back and discuss where we are at, and where we might be going.

2017-02-14 14:39   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Oroville Emergency Spillway: Does this Look Like Bedrock to You?

I’ve had a little criticism here and on Facebook that I’m not a geologist, so I shouldn’t be second-guessing the Oroville Dam engineers. They called for evacuations last evening out of an abundance of caution. That the emergency spillway is no doubt built on bedrock, and so it is safe. Well, if it was only

2017-02-13 21:35   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway Repairs Starting

With daylight and Oroville Lake water levels now 4 feet below the lip of the emergency spillway, we can see that the area of concern is a gouge which developed near the far end of the concrete weir, and was eroding uphill toward that structure; for scale, those yellow spots are people inspecting the gouge

2017-02-13 16:34   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway Expected to Fail within the Hour

So, it turns out all of that bedrock that made the Oroville Dam design so fail-safe is not going to stand in the way of Mother Nature. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered, and the emergency spillway is expected to fail within the hour. Flash flood warnings have been issued. This will affect Oroville all the

2017-02-13 01:12   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Why the Oroville Dam Won’t Fail

While it is said, “never say never”, after researching this issue I’m pretty convinced that it would be nearly impossible for the Oroville Dam to fail. Even though it is an earthfill embankment dam, which can be destroyed if the dam is topped, the following Metabunk graphic demonstrates why the Oroville design is virtually fullproof:

2017-02-12 15:48   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Is Failure of the Oroville Dam Possible?

The last couple of days have not made me very confident in the predictions of engineers associated with the Oroville Dam. While I am a climate researcher, and not hydrologist, it took me less than an hour midday yesterday (see comments here) to estimate that the emergency spillway would be breached around 9 a.m. PST

2017-02-11 18:15   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Lake Oroville 100% Full; Emergency Spillway Use Hours Away?

UPDATE: As of 7 a.m. PST, the water level has increased to 900.89 ft., closely following the model forecast described below. The emergency spillway is breached at 901 ft., which is less than 2 inches above the current level For the first time in the 50 year history of Oroville Dam, Lake Oroville has exceeded

2017-02-11 13:00   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Lake Oroville Near 100% Full, Emergency Overflow Imminent

With a winter of phenomenal heavy rains and snow (over 400 inches so far at some Sierra Nevada locations), Lake Oroville 65 miles north of Sacramento is literally entering uncharted territory in its 50 year history. As the following chart shows, the reservoir is rapidly approaching its design capacity: While the reservoir has been nearly

2017-02-10 14:56   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2017: +0.30 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January 2017 was +0.30 deg. C, up a little from the December value of +0.24 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 25 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM.

2017-02-01 14:05   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Trump Climate Dump: Why It Doesn’t Matter if Even 100% of Scientists Agree on Global Warming

Given current technologies, it makes no sense to destroy $100 Trillion in wealth this century for an unmeasurable reduction in warming. Everything humans do requires energy. Everything. The more efficiently we can do those things, the greater humanity prospers. Affordable energy is part of that efficiency. But when human prosperity suffers, people die. So, can

2017-01-20 19:43   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Trump’s NOAA Administrator Must Address the Temperature Record Controversy

An article appeared in the Washington Post yesterday entitled, “Who Will Lead NOAA Under President Trump?“. Written by the Capitol Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow, it lists three top contenders: Scott Rayder, senior adviser for development and partnerships at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Barry Myers, chief executive of AccuWeather in State College, Pa. Jonathan…

2017-01-18 15:19   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Satellite Reveals End of “Unending” N. California Drought

With more rain and snow on the way, the supposed “unending drought” that the New York Times reported on last year has, in a matter of weeks, ended — at least in Northern California. Yesterday’s color satellite imagery from NASA shows the dramatic changes which have occurred since the same date three years ago: –

2017-01-14 12:51   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Frigid 48: U.S. Average Temperature 11 deg. F

As predicted here ten days ago, portions of all of the Lower 48 states are below 32 deg. F at 6 a.m. EST this morning (animation here): The spatial average temperature over the Lower 48 at 6 a.m. is 11 deg. F, which is fully 9 deg. (!) colder than at any time last winter

2017-01-07 12:04   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998

Strong December Cooling Leads to 2016 Being Statistically Indistinguishable from 1998 The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg. C, down substantially from the November value of +0.45 deg. C (click for full size version): The resulting 2016 annual average global temperature anomaly is +0.50 deg. C,

2017-01-03 13:24   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Cold to be Followed by Southern Snowstorm

The coast-to-coast cold that will be spreading across the U.S this week will be be accompanied by the development of a Gulf Coast low pressure center that will threaten the South and Southeast with substantial snowfall by the weekend. The low is just now approaching N. California and will intensify as it travels across the

2017-01-02 18:00   Click to comment

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