Site: Roy Spencer

Slant: Sceptic

Active: yes


This is the website of Roy Spencer. Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Recent Articles

Roy Spencer: In Defense of the Term “Greenouse Effect”

Over the years I have gone along with the crowd and derided the term “greenhouse effect” as a poor analogy between the atmosphere’s ability to keep the Earth’s surfce warmer than it would be without IR-absorbing (and thus IR-emitting) gases, versus a greenhouse in which plants are grown. But the more I think about it,

2018-05-09 15:03   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2018: +0.21 deg. C.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2018 was +0.21 deg. C, down a little from the March value of +0.24 deg. C: Some regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2017 01 +0.33

2018-05-01 15:29   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: New Lewis & Curry Study Concludes Climate Sensitivity is Low

Global warming “problem” cut by 50% As readers here are aware, I don’t usually critique published climate papers unless they are especially important to the climate debate. Too many papers are either not that important, or not that convincing to me. The holy grail of the climate debate is equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS): just how

2018-04-24 16:01   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The 100th Meridian Agricultural Scare: Another Example of Media Hype Exceeding Reality

A new paper published in the AMS Earth Interactions entitled, Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid-Humid Divide, Part II: The Meridian Moves East, discusses the climate model-expected drying of the western U.S. and how this will affect the agricultural central- and east- U.S. as the climatological

2018-04-18 16:52   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Midwest’s April chill most unusual on Earth

If you thought the cold April weather in the U.S. was exceptional, you are correct. In terms of temperature departures from average so far this April, the U.S. Midwest, Northern Plains, and much of Canada have been the coldest on Earth (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com): The areas of green have averaged at least 6 deg.

2018-04-16 15:20   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Stormy April to give snow job to Midwest

Friday the 13th is not shaping up to be very lucky for some people, weather-wise. A strong springtime (or late winter?) storm currently moving across the northern and central Rockies will move east over the next several days with a wide variety of severe weather, including blizzard conditions to the north and severe thunderstorms to

2018-04-12 16:10   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: DC Cherry Blossom Peak to be met with Peak Snow?

After continuing delays due to cold weather, the National Park Service’s daily update for the DC Tidal Basin cherry blosson predicts that the peak blossom time will finally be this weekend. But you might want to get out the snow shovel if you want to go see this annual event. The latest weather forecast models

2018-04-04 14:51   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2018: +0.24 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2018 was +0.24 deg. C, up a little from the February value of +0.20 deg. C: Some regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2017 01 +0.33

2018-04-02 15:01   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Return to Sender? China is Country Most Likely to See Tiangong-1 Burn Up

As China’s Tiangong-1 Space Station now rapidly falls to meet its fiery demise in the next several hours, the Aerospace Corporation’s most recent estimate of the potential paths of reentry show that China has the greatest statistical chance of any country of seeing the spectacle, with the longest potential reentry orbit sections: Of course, the

2018-04-01 20:15   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: U.S. chance of Tiangong-1 sighting now less than 2%

The latest Aerospace Corp. prediction of the reentry time for the Chinese Space Station Tiangong-1 is now 3:30 p.m. CDT (plus or minus 8 hours) on Sunday, April 1. As reentry approaches, the predictions will get better, and the potential paths of the satellite will be narrowing. The latest potential paths of reentry look like

2018-03-31 16:47   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Lord Monckton Responds

NOTE: In fairness to Lord Monckton, I have accepted his request to respond to my post where I criticized his claim than an “elementary error of physics” could be demonstrated on the part of climate modelers. While Christopher & I are in agreement that the models produce too much warming, we disagree on the reasons

2018-03-23 12:14   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Climate F-Words

A recent article by Lord Christopher Monckton over at WUWT argues that there has been an “elementary error of physics” that has led to climate sensitivity being overestimated by about a factor of 2. I agree with the conclusion but not the reason why. It is already known from the work of Otto et al.

2018-03-22 14:54   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Chinese satellite filled with corrosive fuel will probably hit… the ocean

Oh, boy. If only reporters checked with anyone who knows orbital mechanics before writing stories like this: Chinese satellite filled with corrosive fuel could hit lower Michigan The orbital decay of the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will lead to its uncontrolled reentry around April. The green and yellow areas on the following map show where

2018-03-11 23:20   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2018: +0.20 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2018 was +0.20 deg. C, down a little from the January value of +0.26 deg. C: The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS 2017 01 +0.33

2018-03-01 14:24   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Warming to 2100: A Lukewarmer Scenario

My previous post dealt with a 1D model of ocean temperature changes to 2,000m depth, optimized to match various observed quantities: deep-ocean heat storage, surface temperature warming, the observed lagged-variations between CERES satellite radiative flux and surface temperature, and warming/cooling associated with El Nino/La Nina. While that model was meant to match global average (land+ocean)

2018-02-28 16:28   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: A 1D Model of Global Temperature Changes, 1880-2017: Low Climate Sensitivity (and More)

Executive Summary A 1D forcing-feedback model with two equivalent-ocean layers is used to model monthly global average surface temperatures from 1880 through 2017. Reflected shortwave (SW) and thermally emitted longwave (LW) forcings and feedbacks are included in an attempt to obtain the closest match between the model and HadCRUT4 surface temperatures based upon correlation and

2018-02-22 17:44   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Diagnosing Climate Sensitivity Assuming Some Natural Warming

Climate sensitivity has been diagnosed based upon energy budget considerations by several authors in recent years using observational data combined with estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing (e.g. Otto et al., 2013; Lewis & Curry, 2014). Significantly, they generally calculate a lower equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) than the average of the IPCC AR5 climate models. Whereas

2018-02-16 17:51   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2018: +0.26 deg. C

Coolest tropics since June, 2012 at -0.12 deg. C. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2018 was +0.26 deg. C, down from the December, 2017 value of +0.41 deg. C: The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 13 months are: YEAR

2018-02-01 13:50   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: U.S. Corn Yield a New Record – Again

Global warming be damned — full speed ahead on the Maize Train. The numbers are in from USDA, and 2017 saw a new record in average corn yield, with 176.6 bushels per acre. In fact, the last four growing seasons (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) had higher yields than any previous years. The last time that

2018-01-29 17:11   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Sydney Heat and “Bomb” Snowstorm: Pimped Out for Climate Change

It’s been an eventful weather week in some portions of the globe. In fact, it is always an eventful weather week – somewhere. But what really drives the narrative is when weather extremes — which always have, and always will, occur — happen to hit major metropolitan areas. Many people are already aware of the

2018-01-07 14:22   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Da Bomb

The rapidly intensifying non-tropical cyclone producing heavy snow and blizzard conditions over the mid-Atlantic and New England is meeting expectations, with localized snowfalls of over 6 inches already this morning. The latest NAM model forecast of additional snowfall after 7 a.m. this morning until tomorrow morning shows up to 12-18 inches of snow over portions

2018-01-04 14:49   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2017: +0.41 deg. C

2017 Third Warmest in the 39-Year Satellite Record Global Satellite Monitoring of Temperature Enters its 40th Year The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2017 was +0.41 deg. C, up a little from the November, 2017 value of +0.36 deg. C: The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the

2018-01-02 13:54   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: U.S. Average Temperature Plummets to 11 deg. F

This morning at 7 a.m. EST, the area average temperature across the contiguous 48 states was a frigid 11 deg. F. Here’s the high-resolution surface temperature analysis from NCEP, graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com: Over 85% of the nation is below freezing, and nearly 1/3 is below 0 deg. F. The forecast is for cold air

2018-01-01 13:29   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: First Annual List of Banished Climate Change Terms

Lake Superior State University has just released their 43rd annual list of banished words and phrases. These are usually new terms that pop culture has invented which professors at LSSU find silly in some way. Since I attended that institution for two years, I consider myself to be grandfathered in to start my own banished

2017-12-31 15:33   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Frigid Air Causing Star Wars “Lightsaber” Effect

The unusually frigid air over the central and eastern U.S. caused this relatively rare “lightsaber” display of light pillars in Lebanon, New Hampshire, on the night of December 27, 2017. The effect is caused when flat-plate ice crystals falling through cold air reflect light sources on the ground like tiny mirrors. The pillars themselves are

2017-12-29 22:10   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Major East Coast Snowstorm for New Years Eve?

We meteorologists have been watching what looks to be a major snowstorm shaping up for the eastern U.S. in the last couple days of 2017. While it is still too early to tell just where the worst weather will be, it does look like frigid air coming down from Canada will be met by moist

2017-12-22 22:39   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: L.A. Wildfires Creating Spectacular Smoke Plume

The warm, dry Santa Ana winds which are fanning the flames of the wildfires in the L.A. area have pushed the smoke hundreds of miles offshore. Yesterday’s NASA MODIS imager on the Terra satellite captured the following image of the smoke being sheared into artistic shapes as it travels downwind. Click on the image for

2017-12-07 12:48   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2017:+0.36 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2017 was +0.36 deg. C, down substantially from the October, 2017 value of +0.63 deg. C: (I am out of the office until Dec. 6, and cannot provide the plot of data until then.) The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the

2017-12-01 15:57   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Mysterious Night Flashes Near Mt. Agung Volcano Observed from Satellite

Today I was watching the 10-minute imagery from the Japanese Himawari geostationary weather satellite for the next eruption of Mt. Agung in Bali, Indonesia, and in the last hour or so there have been some distinct flashes in the nighttime imagery, which you can access here. These only show up in the nighttime imagery. Here’s

2017-11-27 22:47   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Trump Wrongly Blamed for Destroying Sea Ice Satellite

No, Our Ability to Monitor Sea Ice Has Not Ended Yesterday, The Guardian ran a story with the headlines: Donald Trump accused of obstructing satellite research into climate change Republican-controlled Congress ordered destruction of vital sea-ice probe But as NASA’s leader of the U.S. Science Team on one of the best satellite instruments developed for

2017-11-06 12:14   Click to comment


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