Site: Roy Spencer

Slant: Sceptic

Active: yes


This is the website of Roy Spencer. Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Recent Articles

Roy Spencer: Is Satellite Altimeter-based Sea Level Rise Acceleration from a Biased Water Vapor Correction?

SUMMARY: Evidence is presented that an over-correction of satellite altimeter data for increasing water vapor might be at least partly responsible for the claimed “acceleration” of recent sea level rise. UPDATE: A day after posting this, I did a rough calculation of how large the error in altimeter-based sea level rise could possibly be. The […]

2019-03-07 18:12   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for February, 2019: +0.36 deg. C.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2019 was +0.36 deg. C, essentially unchanged from the January, 2019 value of +0.37 deg. C: Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2018 01 +0.26 […]

2019-03-01 19:13   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: No, Increasing CO2 isn’t going to trigger a hot world without clouds.

I’ve received many more requests about the new disappearing-clouds study than the “gold standard proof of anthropogenic warming” study I addressed here, both of which appeared in Nature journals over the last several days. The widespread interest is partly because of the way the study is dramatized in the media. For example, check out this […]

2019-03-01 16:51   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: New Santer Study: 97% Consensus is now 99.99997%

A new paper in Nature Climate Change by Santer et al. (paywalled) claims that the 40 year record of global tropospheric temperatures agrees with climate model simulations of anthropogenic global warming so well that there is less than a 1 in 3.5 million chance (5 sigma, one-tailed test) that the agreement between models and satellites […]

2019-02-27 14:10   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Canadian Prairie Soybean Increase Not Due to Global Warming

There is no shortage of articles claiming that global warming is causing agriculture of certain crops to push farther north, for example into the southern Canadian Prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. My contacts in the grain trading business tell me that the belief is widespread. For example, here’s a quote from a Manitoba Co-operator […]

2019-02-22 15:05   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Australia’s Record Hot January: Mostly Weather, Not Climate Change

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) claims January, 2019 was record-hot. There is no doubt it was very hot — but just how hot… and why? The BOM announcement mentions “record” no less than 28 times… but nowhere (that I can find) in the report does it say just how long the historical record is. […]

2019-02-04 17:24   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2019: +0.37 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2019 was +0.37 deg. C, up from the December, 2018 value of +0.25 deg. C: Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 13 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2018 01 +0.26 +0.46 […]

2019-02-01 17:21   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: If the Polar Vortex is due to Global Warming, Why are U.S. Cold Waves Decreasing?

It’s much easier to devise and promote a climate change theory than it is to falsify it. Falsification requires a lot of data over a long period of time, something we don’t usually have in climate research. The “polar vortex” is the deep cyclonic flow around a cold air mass generally covering the Arctic, Canada, […]

2019-01-31 19:05   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Aliens Cause Global Warming

Yesterday I was reminded of this brilliant lecture by the late Dr. Michael Crichton, American author, screenwriter, director, and producer. Some of his more notable works include The Andromeda Strain (1969), Jurassic Park (1990), State of Fear (2004), The Great Train Robbery (1979), Twister (1996), and ER (1994-2009). John Christy and I were the basis […]

2019-01-31 17:28   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade Midwest, Chicago

A “Siberian Express” weather disturbance currently crossing the Arctic Ocean will meet up with the semi-permanent winter “polar vortex” over Canada, pushing a record-breaking cold air mass into the Upper Plains and Midwest U.S. by Wednesday. Chicago All-Time Record Low? Both the European (ECMWF) and U.S. (GFS) weather forecast models are in agreement that by […]

2019-01-24 14:40   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Total Lunar Eclipse Time Lapse, January 20-21, 2019

I’ve been wanting to do this kind of time lapse of a lunar eclipse to show just how much change in brightness occurs when the full moon suddenly becomes nearly dark. Most presentations of a lunar eclipse don’t really capture the darkening, just the change in color as the moon transitions from being illuminated by […]

2019-01-21 21:44   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Tomorrow’s Total Lunar Eclipse, and a Mystery

Tomorrow night (January 20-21) will present the whole U.S. with a total lunar eclipse, the best one until May 15, 2022. Totality here in Alabama will occur approximately from 10:40 to 11:40 p.m. CST. Clear weather will be restricted mostly to the southeastern U.S., and portions of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes: A Mystery […]

2019-01-19 14:26   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Ocean Warming in Climate Models Varies Far More than Recent Study Suggests

I wanted to expand upon something that was mentioned in yesterday’s blog post about the recent Cheng et al. paper which was widely reported with headlines suggesting a newer estimate of the rate of ocean warming is 40% higher than old estimates from the IPCC AR5 report in 2013. I demonstrated that the new dataset […]

2019-01-17 18:58   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Media Reports of +40% Adjustment in Ocean Warming Were Greatly Exaggerated

Summary: The recently reported upward adjustment in the 1971-2010 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase compared to the last official estimate from the IPCC is actually 11%, not 40%. The 40% increase turns out to be relative to the average of various OHC estimates the IPCC addressed in their 2013 report, most of which were rejected. […]

2019-01-16 16:41   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Chuck Todd Devotes an Hour to Attacking a Strawman

or, All Credentialed Journalists are Sex Abusers Chuck Todd, on a recent episode of Meet the Press, highlighted the issue of global warming and climate change. He unapologetically made it clear that he wasn’t interested in hearing from people on the opposing side of the scientific issue, stating: “We’re not going to debate climate change, […]

2019-01-03 15:18   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2018: +0.25 deg. C

2018 was 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40 Years The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2018 was +0.25 deg. C, down a little from +0.28 deg. C in November: Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 24 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. […]

2019-01-02 13:50   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Government Shutdown Delays UAH Global Temperature Update

The NOAA CLASS system we obtain our satellite orbit files (raw data) from has been taken offline until the government shutdown ends. As a result, our UAH monthly global temperature update is delayed. UPDATE: We have a separate data feed and so I’ll be able to post results tomorrow, Jan. 2.

2019-01-01 12:29   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Giving Credit to Willis Eschenbach

The non-greenhouse theory of Nikolov (and now Zeller-Nikolov) continues to live on, most recently in this article I’ve been asked about on social media. In short, it is the theory that there really isn’t a so-called “greenhouse effect”, and that the excess planetary surface temperatures on Earth, Venus, and other planets above the Stefan-Boltzmann (SB) […]

2018-12-31 14:08   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: 2018 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40

Even before our December numbers are in, we can now say that 2018 will be the 6th warmest year in the UAH satellite measurements of global-average lower atmospheric temperatures, at +0.23 deg. C (+0.41 deg. F) above the thirty-year (1981-2010) average. The following plot ranks all of the years from warmest to coolest, with the […]

2018-12-20 18:03   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Five Questions Global Warming Policy Must Answer

It is no secret that I doubt increasing CO2 in the atmosphere will have enough negative effects on the global environment to warrant the extreme cost to humanity of substantially reducing those effects. Note that this statement has both science and energy policy components. In fact, with “global greening” we should consider the possibility of […]

2018-12-18 15:49   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Allstate Should Pull this Ad and Apologize for Misleading the Public

I’ve been meaning to comment about this TV ad for Allstate insurance, which enraged me the first time I saw it. Allstate knows better (the insurance business deals with probability and statistics) and they knew this was a lie when they put the ad together: In the ad, actor Dennis Haysbert says: “A once-in-500-year storm […]

2018-12-17 15:30   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Can Space.com Teach Us Anything Useful about Climate?

I saw a Space.com article today entitled, Can Venus teach us to take climate change seriously? While Space.com writers should know quite a bit about the other planets, the article was a fount of misinformation and gross exaggeration. The obvious purpose of the article was scare us into taking increasing carbon dioxide levels seriously, following […]

2018-12-03 15:01   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for November, 2018: +0.28 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2018 was +0.28 deg. C, up a little from +0.22 deg. C in October: Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 23 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2017 01 +0.33 +0.32 +0.34 […]

2018-12-03 13:54   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: The Sorry State of Climate Science Peer Review, and Kudos to Nic Lewis

For decades now those of us trying to publish papers which depart from the climate doom-and-gloom narrative have noticed a trend toward both biased and sloppy peer review of research submitted for publication in scientific journals. Part of the problem is the increased specialization of climate science (and other sciences in general), so that there […]

2018-11-14 15:16   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for October, 2018: +0.22 deg. C

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2018 was +0.22 deg. C, up a little from +0.14 deg. C in September: Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 22 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2017 01 +0.33 +0.32 +0.34 […]

2018-11-02 14:24   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: Florida Major Hurricane Strikes: Still No Trend

Note: The first plot had Michael’s wind speed plotted incorrectly, which has been fixed. I’ve updated a plot of Florida major hurricane strikes since 1900 with Hurricane Michael, and the result is that there is still no trend in either intensity or frequency of strikes over the last 118 years: This is based upon National […]

2018-10-11 17:32   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: New Record Low Tornado Count as of October 3

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center keeps a daily count of cumulative number of tornadoes in the U.S. each year, and recent years have had an unusually low number of tornadoes. As of October 3, the cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records […]

2018-10-04 18:00   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2018: +0.14 deg. C

Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14 deg. C, down a little from +0.19 deg. C in August: This was the coolest September in the last 10 years in the global average. Some regional LT departures from the […]

2018-10-02 14:31   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: My Tucker Carlson Interview Last Night, and Calling Out Bill Nye & James Hansen

It didn’t last long, but I was interviewed in one segment on Tucker Carlson’s show of Fox News Channel last evening: Watch the latest video at foxnews.com The subject was Hurricane Florence and whether it could be blamed on President Trump (specifically) or humanity (more generally). You really can’t say much in only a couple […]

2018-09-15 15:26   Click to comment

Roy Spencer: U.S. Major Landfalling Hurricanes Down 50% Since the 1930s

While the wind, storm surge, and freshwater flooding from Category 1 Hurricane Florence will no doubt cause massive damage, we should remember that – historically speaking – major landfalling hurricanes were more frequent in past decades. Contrary to popular perception, the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. has dropped by an average […]

2018-09-14 13:03   Click to comment


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