Site: And then there's physics

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And then there's physics: An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

I’ve been spending some time working on a Bayesian estimate for climate sensitivity. This is somewhat preliminary and a bit simplistic, but I thought I would post what I’ve done. Essentially, I’ve used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to …

2019-03-25 20:36   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Jonathan’s Carrot and Stick

Jonathan Gilligan is Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University, or so starts his media blurb. To me, Jonathan is the ClimateBall fellow I met at Keith’s ages ago. …

2019-03-21 16:31   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Public involvement in science

I had a brief discussion on Twitter yesterday about science communication, in which the other party seemed to be suggesting that we should recognise that lots of science comes up from the streets and that we should have more people …

2019-03-20 11:18   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The BBC’s lack of balance

Just discovered that a new BBC Scotland news programme (The Nine) decided that it would invite Andrew Montford on to discuss the Youth Strike for Climate. Fortunately, no one else was willing to appear with him, so the segment didn’t …

2019-03-17 14:33   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Open thread: Youth strike for climate

Since I haven’t had a post for a few days, I thought we could have an open thread about the youth strike for climate. I mostly think it’s quite a positive thing; it’s young people whose future is at stake …

2019-03-15 15:31   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II

A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them …

2019-03-10 16:53   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The Honest Broker

In discussions about science and policy, it is quite common for people to refer to The Honest Broker, a book by Roger Pielke Jr. I realise that it is now a little old, but I’ve only just had the chance …

2019-03-08 17:19   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Guest post: On coral alarmism

This is a guest post by Geoff Price, who blogs at pressing wax and tweets as @geoffmprice. The post first appeared here and starts now. Even pretty staggering changes in the natural world can struggle to compete for attention amid the …

2019-03-05 19:43   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Climate change risks

I thought I would briefly mention a paper, by Simon Sharpe, that is currently under review and that discusses how we should present climate risks. It was highlighted by Steve Forden on Twitter and suggests that climate risks should be …

2019-03-04 21:44   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Mario’s Room

Marie Kondo might be onto something. Her method inspires millions to unclutter homes and lives. She divides belongings into five categories: clothes, books, papers, miscellanea, and mementos. (So much the worse for artisans and musicians.) After having gathered each item …

2019-03-02 16:19   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Survivor bias

I was in a book shop a few days ago and noticed a book with authors that included Matt Ridley and Steven Pinker. It was about whether or not humankind’s best days lie ahead. I didn’t buy (I probably should …

2019-02-20 21:16   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Only Connect

You may have heard of the cumulative temperature increases plateauing between 1998 and 2013. “But Da Paws” was all the rage around 2012 in the Contrarian Matrix – recall for instance when David Rose became Judy’s megaphone. Then it subsided: …

2019-02-17 12:53   Click to comment

And then there's physics: School strike for climate

I thought I would try to briefly write about today’s school strike for climate. I mostly think this is a really good thing. I don’t think we should be relying on school children. I don’t think that school children should …

2019-02-15 16:58   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Climate scepticism in the UK

I came across a book called Climate Change Scepticism: A transnational ecocritical analysis, by Greg Garrard, Axel Goodbody, George Handley, and Stéphanie Posthumus. The reason I found it interesting is that it includes a chapter on Climate Scepticism in the …

2019-02-11 21:10   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Common ground?

Judith Curry testified before the US House of Representatives. You can read her evidence and post. In a follow up post Judith suggests that there is some common ground that we can build on. I’m not really convinced that there …

2019-02-07 19:50   Click to comment

And then there's physics: A giant impact outside our Solar System

I’ve come down to listen to a General Interest seminar about climate change given by retired physics professor, but I’ve discovered it’s next week. I’ll have to wait to find out if it satisfies the stereotype. Since there is no …

2019-02-06 13:21   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Swans on ice

I was out walking in the Pentlands Hills yesterday. They’re quite close to where I live and I particularly like it when there’s snow on the ground. Rather embarassingly, I’ve been aiming to go over one of the higher hills, …

2019-02-03 15:03   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The Hawkmoth Effect

I’ve been down to the University of Warwick to give a seminar, and was reading Eric Winsberg’s book on the train. Eric was interviewed by Willard for the previous post and his book is about Philosophy and Climate Science. I’m …

2019-01-31 20:03   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Eric’s Memes

Eric Winsberg teaches philosophy at the University of South Florida. He specializes in philosophy of science, in particular computer simulations in science. He wrote a book that may interest AT’s readers, called Philosophy and Climate Science. We met over teh …

2019-01-29 15:41   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Early 20th century warming

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of …

2019-01-26 11:16   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Recursive climateball

I noticed on Twitter that Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has got people talking, again, about controversies based on emails from almost 20 years ago. Rather than delving into it too much myself, I thought I would just post the …

2019-01-23 07:30   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Democracy

I’ve mostly avoided writing about Brexit, as it’s a pretty depressing situation. There are many aspects of this issue that I find frustrating, but something I find particularly irritating is when politicians claim that not leaving the EU would be …

2019-01-20 18:07   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Guest essay: The Missing Key

This is a guest essay from Peter Miesler, who writes the blog Citizen’s Challenge. The Missing Key to Stephen Gould’s “Nonoverlapping Magisteria” “… missing was a much more fundamental division crying out for recognition. Specifically, the magisteria of Physical Reality …

2019-01-19 20:45   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The significance of the “pause”

I wrote a post a while ago about there being no “pause” in global warming. It was based on a paper by Risbey et al. called [a] fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence, …

2019-01-15 20:30   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Fact mongering

I thought I would highlight an essay that some of my regulars might find of interest. It’s by Adam Briggle in Issues in Science and Technology and is about Fear mongering and fact mongering. The article is essentially about responsible …

2019-01-10 20:54   Click to comment

And then there's physics: We have 12 years

Patrick Brown has a recent blog post about whether, or not, the IPCC claims that we have 12 years to avoid catastrophic global warming. As his post highlights, there are a number of problems with this claim. Firstly, the IPCC …

2019-01-09 19:15   Click to comment

And then there's physics: What bothers, and confuses, me about climate change

Since this blog is mainly a place for me to express my views, I thought I would try explain something that bothers, and confuses, me about the whole climate change issue. Maybe others feel the same as I do, maybe …

2019-01-06 17:23   Click to comment

And then there's physics: Kenneth Smith

Originally posted on ...and Then There's Physics: Today is the 100th anniversary of the start of the first World War. In one of the articles I was reading, there was a comment that it was an event that probably…

2019-01-01 13:48   Click to comment

And then there's physics: 2018: A year in review

Well, it’s the end of another year, so I should probably do a round-up of what’s happened on the blog. The blog seems to be ticking along quite well, but I still don’t really know what I’m doing; I just …

2018-12-31 14:09   Click to comment

And then there's physics: The exoplanets around GJ 9827

I hope everyone is having a good break. I have a bit of free time, so thought I would mention a paper I’ve just finished. It’s about the the three super-Earths that orbit a star known as GJ 9827. The …

2018-12-27 11:35   Click to comment


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