Site: James Annan

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James Annan: We’re not in Yorkshire any more Toto

2018-05-15 00:25   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU2018 Day 5

One final push…we were back on paleoclimate again first thing, more data than models though a bit of a mix of both. Just as the session ended and I started to think about going in search of lunch, lunch arrived in the form of sandwiches for the Atmospheric Sciences Division meeting. I usually attend the Climate Division meeting so thought it might be interesting to see if AS would have a…

2018-04-16 07:37   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 4

Four days in and the fog is descending…not the weather which remains resolutely warm and sunny, but my mental state after on overload of science, food, drink, and long days. Nothing compelling at 8:30 so we had a morning jog and breakfast at the excellent cafe just outside our apartment. Possibly the best almond croissant ever, feeling a bit stupid for not discovering this place before as…

2018-04-14 06:56   Click to comment

James Annan: 2:48:44

Another year, another PB.This year the marathon was scheduled for the Sunday immediately before the EGU. However we weren't committed to that so I entered anyway when they sent me an early bird discount offer. The Vienna marathon was also a week too late for a combined work/run trip.Later on we started to think about the EGU trip, and realised that it was actually possible to run the marathon,…

2018-04-12 15:36   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 3

jules was talking in the first session this morning (paleo data assimilation) so had to rush in a bit early. She was talking about our plans for reconstructing the last deglaciation (21ka to present). It seems to have gone ok, I was sitting in on the proper data assimilation session so didn’t get to hear it In a bizarre blast from the past, someone was talking about orthogonality of bred…

2018-04-12 08:43   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 2

jules had a a 7:30 breakfast meeting today which didn’t seem very civilised to me. But it looks like it was worth getting up for.A perk of being Executive Editor, but very little recompense really for the hours of work she puts into running GMD. I am pleased to confirm that the croissant that she smuggled out for me was excellent.The day proper started with general paleo data/modelling stuff…

2018-04-11 07:39   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 1

Going to try a mini-blog straight away to avoid a big backlog. Arriving late on Sunday to a self-catering apartment meant a quick shop on Monday morning and missed session. As I said to Didier when he complained that I missed his 8:30 session (with a sceptic talk first up), I had something else more important already scheduled – breakfast! There was a brief moment of excitement later on when…

2018-04-10 07:45   Click to comment

James Annan: Trip to the 21st(?) Century

Went to Reading University last week, to do a lecture as part of a course for PhD students. The course was aimed at teaching paleodata students about models and how they might be useful for their research. A very good idea! Here are some students, and Joy (at the end of the bench) who was in charge, doing a lot of the teaching and most of the lecturing (a lot of work!) all while living up to…

2018-01-31 15:12   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Cox et al part 3

As promised some more on this. The first thing I thought, on seeing this paper – a feeling that others apparently shared – was, why had no-one else already thought of this? Had we all just behaved like the fabled economist who, when their companion points out a £10 note lying on the pavement, ignores it, saying "If there really was a £10 note, someone would have picked it up…

2018-01-29 10:26   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: More about Cox et al.

Time to move this discussion onto the BlueSkiesResearch blog as it is, after all, directly related to my work. Previous post here but I might copy that over here too.Conversations about the Cox et al paper have continued on twitter and blogs. Firstly, Rasmus Benestad posted an article on RealClimate that I thought missed the mark rather badly. His main complaint seems to be that the simple…

2018-01-26 07:26   Click to comment

James Annan: More sensitivity stuff

After what feels like a very long hiatus, it seems that people are writing interesting stuff about climate sensitivity again. Just last week on Twitter I saw Andrew Dessler tweeting about his most recent manuscript which is up on ACP(D) for comment. My eyebrow was slightly raised at the range of values he found when analysing outputs of the MPI ensemble, 2.1 to 3.9K, until I realised that…

2018-01-18 10:32   Click to comment

James Annan: Implicit priors and the energy balance of the earth system

So, this old chestnut seems to keep on coming back....Back in 2002, Gregory et al proposed that we could generate “An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity” via the energy balance equation S = F2x dT/Q where S is the equilibrium sensitivity to 2xCO2, F2x = 3.7 is the (known constant) forcing of 2xCO2, dT is the observed surface air temperature change and Q is the net…

2017-11-30 22:06   Click to comment

James Annan: Watt's up with Pat Frank?

And now for your scheduled return to the climate blogosphere wars. I haven't missed it at all. Pat Frank has posted a rather tedious pile of blether on WTFUWT which mentions me, albeit tangentially. Well, maybe a bit more than tangentially. The story, such as it is, is that he submitted a paper (which apparently has been rejected 6 times already by different journals) to GMD where I'm an…

2017-11-15 15:06   Click to comment

James Annan: We have corporate sponsorship

I've been waiting a long time to use this clip! Finally signed our first contract for some work which is due to start shortly. It's not a huge project but should be interesting and generate some worthwhile results. We didn't really have to punch ourselves in the face or threaten to reveal the dirty secrets of climate modelling (jules already has a journal dedicated to that cause).If anyone…

2017-10-10 19:35   Click to comment

James Annan: Stockholm art

Stockholm has a modern art museum and we all know how important it is to open one's mind to surrealist thoughts before a science conference...We've never had a cargo disaster like this bicycle case, despite shipping 3 tandems across the oceans to Japan and back! I soon discovered one of the escaped bicycle wheels spinning in a corner: Wonder what beautiful piccies will be added to these…

2017-10-01 17:15   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Stockholm

#PMIP2017 was held in Stockholm. Maybe it was the unusual warmth and sunshine, but Stockholm seemed like a very happy kind of place. Nowhere else have I seen children swinging joyfully from the street signs. Construction is always good sign of prosperity...? Then there is the river Private yachts. Public life saving. --Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 10/01/2017 02:17:00 PM

2017-10-01 14:19   Click to comment

James Annan: Running hot...or not?

The question has been asked (repeatedly): are the CMIP models “running hot”? By which it is not meant, are the models too warm - they have a wide range of temperature biases which are normally subtracted off by the use of anomalies (which is a separate debate) - but whether they are warming up too much relative to observations. But I don't care about that, because I've been running too!…

2017-09-24 15:55   Click to comment

James Annan: Currywurst

I had curry for lunch on Thursday.It was the wurst!(Actually it was rather good, however we forgot to take a pic so you'll have to make do with this less appealing version from wikipedia.)By massive coincidence I saw this tweet from Gavin on the same day:Red team troubles... @curryja on the Heartland Institute roster of contrarians (via @scottpwaldman) pic.twitter.com/EUSmbcj8Cz— Gavin…

2017-09-23 17:08   Click to comment

James Annan: Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

New(ish, but I'm just getting round to writing about it) review article by Knutti et al on climate sensitivity. The detailed review of published estimates is impressive, a lot of work must have gone into that. It has been spotted that the Callendar estimate is wrong: the value in the paper is about 1.8C for a doubling of CO2, which is rather lower than the value plotted in the figure. (This…

2017-09-21 09:00   Click to comment

James Annan: Make our Planet Great Again

Our kind host has pointed us towards the German call for applications for 4-year fellowships under the joint France-Germany “Make our Planet Great Again” program. This was originally Macron's brainchild, which attracted a certain amount of media attention possibly disproportionate to its scientific importance. Now the Germans have jumped on board with an essentially parallel (albeit…

2017-09-19 10:00   Click to comment

James Annan: More D&A and FvB.

By chance I happened to notice another paper with an interesting title appearing in Climatic Change on the very same day as the recent Mann et al paper: Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies? While my noticing it was fortuitous, the publication date was no coincidence, as it was clearly intended as a "comment on" in all but name. I am not…

2017-09-18 11:37   Click to comment

James Annan: Blueskiesresearch.org.uk: Winton betting market

There could be something paywalled in the FT about this, the global warming policy foundation forum farce have copied a bit and managed to post a quote from somewhere saying"A leading global warming expert believes that the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a "big gamble" as temperatures have not increased since 1997"Not really much of an expert then.I heard about the Winton…

2017-09-13 15:00   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Blue Skies Research Ltd!

After thinking about it for a few years we have finally bitten the bullet and incorporated Blue Skies Research Ltd as a private company. Since there are two of us, we couldn’t very well set up as a sole trader and a partnership didn’t seem particularly attractive either. For our situation, the tax situation seems fairly similar in all cases: income tax and NI contributions on the one hand,…

2017-09-13 09:24   Click to comment

James Annan: Encyclopedia of Geosciences

As per title. A work in progress (well, hardly started) so I wouldn't want to be too critical. A prize for the first person to find out where “climate change” is located.That's all for now :-)

2017-09-09 14:18   Click to comment

James Annan: More on Bayesian approaches to detection and attribution

Timely given events all over the place, this new paper by Mann et al has just appeared. It's a well-aimed jab at the detection and attribution industry which could perhaps be held substantially responsible for the sterile “debate” over the extent to which AGW has influenced extreme events (and/or will do so in the future). I've argued against D&A several times in the past (such as here,

2017-09-07 10:37   Click to comment

James Annan: Well-tossed word salad with French dressing

Bjorn put on a little conference last week in honour of our visit (or if you prefer alternative facts, we made sure our dates included the meeting). Mostly, it consisted of an up-to-date compendium of what people are currently doing in climate model development which was very interesting to us now we aren't based in a lab. Of course this work tends to be fairly incremental stuff so having a…

2017-09-06 09:00   Click to comment

James Annan: Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

Paper with the above title just appeared in GMD. Despite being a European English-language journal we welcome Americans and even Americanisms, so I'll quote the title as written rather than as it should be :-) In this paper, Gavin has nicely summarised (or perhaps I may say, summarized) how approaches to model tuning vary throughout the US climate science community.It's a slightly unusual…

2017-09-05 13:52   Click to comment

James Annan: Hamburg revisited

Yes we're in Hamburg again, which at least partially explains the ferry. We are back at the Max-Plank Institut für Meteorologie for another visit courtesy of Bjorn Stevens and Thorsten Mauritsen. Who is not Mauritian despite the attempts of my spellchecker to make him so! Going by ferry enabled us to bring bicycles (in the new stealth camper van) and rent an apartment a little way out of the…

2017-09-02 07:30   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] ships - Harwich to Hook of Holland

So much more civilised than flying... especially when transporting a tandem. --Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 8/26/2017 08:43:00 PM

2017-08-26 20:45   Click to comment

James Annan: Bishop's Castle Tandem Triathlon

We were aware of this annual event many years ago before we went to Japan. However, back then I didn't run and jules was not that regular a swimmer, so we never got round to entering it. The last couple of years since returning from Japan it has clashed with our local club triathlon so it was only this year that we finally got round to doing it for the first time. It's a very informal event…

2017-07-07 12:29   Click to comment


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