Site: James Annan

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James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Comments on Cox et al

And to think a few weeks ago I was thinking that not much had been happening in climate science…now here’s another interesting issue. I previously blogged quite a lot about the Cox et al paper (see here, here, here). It generated a lot of interest in the scientific community and I’m not terribly surprised that it provoked some comments which have just been published and which can be found

2018-11-08 09:01   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: That new ocean heat content estimate

From Resplandy et al (conveniently already up on sci-hub):Our result — which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 1991 — suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy- relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gasesBut how big are these implications? As it…

2018-11-03 17:03   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs (on the pizza)

The CFMIP workshop provided the excuse we were looking for in order to visit Boulder again. Last year this meeting had been held in Tokyo which, on top of being a long way away, also directly clashed with the PMIP workshop that jules was duty-bound to attend. The main focus of the CFMIP workshop is the simulation of clouds in GCMs and how they might be affected by climate change. This is our…

2018-10-24 22:11   Click to comment

James Annan: Credit where it's due

The GMD t-shirts continue to be good value. Jules and I usually try to wear ours at any scientific meetings to spread the word and it often sparks off some interaction. Recently someone prominent came up to me at the workshop dinner and congratulated me on my achievements in respect of GMD. He was particularly impressed with the CMIP6 special issue which is turning out to be very useful. I…

2018-10-19 23:27   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] snow!

--Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 10/17/2018 08:01:00 PM

2018-10-17 19:21   Click to comment

James Annan: The bet - final outcome

You may be wondering what had happened with this. As you will recall, some time ago I arranged a bet with two Russian solar scientists who had predicted that the world was going to cool down. The terms of the bet were very simple, we would compare the global mean average surface temperature between 1998-2003 and 2012-17 (according to NCDC), and if the latter period was warmer, I would win…

2018-10-15 09:36   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Clueing

The location can hardly be in doubt. But why? Here's a clue!(And no, the clue is not only what massive hypocrites we climate change scientists are flying hither and thither for no reason at all )

2018-10-14 02:39   Click to comment

James Annan: "...because the stakes are so low"

In an earlier blog I alluded to the fact that someone had written a paper on ensemble means. I didn't think it was particularly interesting or useful since we had written a more correct and complete analysis some years previously (as blogged variously here here here). The particular point that the author Bo Christensen got most obviously wrong was his claim that the CMIP ensemble behaved like…

2018-10-12 07:42   Click to comment

James Annan: That IPCC thing

Hello faithful blog readers. After a long absence I'm going to try to post some things again. Got a small backlog of ideas to write about and a little bit of free time to work at them.I'll start with the tedious 1.5C nonsense since I can sense that you are all (both?) desperate for my opinions. The simple and efficient way for the IPCC to have responded to the stupid proposal from politicians…

2018-10-10 23:28   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Muffin

Cottonwoods instead of ash treesMuffins instead of cream cakes (but still cappuccinos)Universal toileting singly occupied, thus much less frightening than a Dutch version I experienced recently (where I had the bizarre experience of a man I know proffering me a paper towel that he had extracted from the machine, apparently as an act of chivalry. Ewwww!)

2018-10-10 17:54   Click to comment

James Annan: Quakerism - refreshes the parts other religions cannot reach

Wikipedia says that academics can't agree on what a religion actually is. I'm pretty sure that Parkrun passes most of the criteria and I've long thought that the Settle Harriers and the Settle Wheelers should be welcomed into 'churches together in Settle and district'.However, this week it's Quaker Week!!! It is quite hard to define Quakerism, but one thing rare among religions is that this…

2018-10-03 18:34   Click to comment

James Annan: To Boulderly Go (and come back again)

As I think was probably guessed, we were in Boulder recently. It was just a holiday this time, we didn't get closer to NCAR than the cafes in the mall at the bottom of the hill. There may be photos to follow.As well as discovering that a local parkrun had recently been set up literally minutes from our apartment (what are the odds of that, with only a dozen events across the entire USA?) our…

2018-06-18 20:13   Click to comment

James Annan: More word salad

Having accused someone else of writing a word salad it's only fair that I should tar jules with the same brush too :-) Life as an unemployed self-employed scientist isn't all holidays and bison burgers, she occasionally does some work too though coincidentally (or not) her latest paper is the result of another trip to the USA a couple of years ago. Unfortunately someone didn't get the open…

2018-06-03 03:14   Click to comment

James Annan: We’re not in Yorkshire any more Toto

2018-05-14 23:25   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU2018 Day 5

One final push…we were back on paleoclimate again first thing, more data than models though a bit of a mix of both. Just as the session ended and I started to think about going in search of lunch, lunch arrived in the form of sandwiches for the Atmospheric Sciences Division meeting. I usually attend the Climate Division meeting so thought it might be interesting to see if AS would have a…

2018-04-16 06:37   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 4

Four days in and the fog is descending…not the weather which remains resolutely warm and sunny, but my mental state after on overload of science, food, drink, and long days. Nothing compelling at 8:30 so we had a morning jog and breakfast at the excellent cafe just outside our apartment. Possibly the best almond croissant ever, feeling a bit stupid for not discovering this place before as…

2018-04-14 05:56   Click to comment

James Annan: 2:48:44

Another year, another PB.This year the marathon was scheduled for the Sunday immediately before the EGU. However we weren't committed to that so I entered anyway when they sent me an early bird discount offer. The Vienna marathon was also a week too late for a combined work/run trip.Later on we started to think about the EGU trip, and realised that it was actually possible to run the marathon,…

2018-04-12 14:36   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 3

jules was talking in the first session this morning (paleo data assimilation) so had to rush in a bit early. She was talking about our plans for reconstructing the last deglaciation (21ka to present). It seems to have gone ok, I was sitting in on the proper data assimilation session so didn’t get to hear it In a bizarre blast from the past, someone was talking about orthogonality of bred…

2018-04-12 07:43   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 2

jules had a a 7:30 breakfast meeting today which didn’t seem very civilised to me. But it looks like it was worth getting up for.A perk of being Executive Editor, but very little recompense really for the hours of work she puts into running GMD. I am pleased to confirm that the croissant that she smuggled out for me was excellent.The day proper started with general paleo data/modelling stuff…

2018-04-11 06:39   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2018 Day 1

Going to try a mini-blog straight away to avoid a big backlog. Arriving late on Sunday to a self-catering apartment meant a quick shop on Monday morning and missed session. As I said to Didier when he complained that I missed his 8:30 session (with a sceptic talk first up), I had something else more important already scheduled – breakfast! There was a brief moment of excitement later on when…

2018-04-10 06:45   Click to comment

James Annan: Trip to the 21st(?) Century

Went to Reading University last week, to do a lecture as part of a course for PhD students. The course was aimed at teaching paleodata students about models and how they might be useful for their research. A very good idea! Here are some students, and Joy (at the end of the bench) who was in charge, doing a lot of the teaching and most of the lecturing (a lot of work!) all while living up to…

2018-01-31 15:12   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Cox et al part 3

As promised some more on this. The first thing I thought, on seeing this paper – a feeling that others apparently shared – was, why had no-one else already thought of this? Had we all just behaved like the fabled economist who, when their companion points out a £10 note lying on the pavement, ignores it, saying "If there really was a £10 note, someone would have picked it up…

2018-01-29 10:26   Click to comment

James Annan: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: More about Cox et al.

Time to move this discussion onto the BlueSkiesResearch blog as it is, after all, directly related to my work. Previous post here but I might copy that over here too.Conversations about the Cox et al paper have continued on twitter and blogs. Firstly, Rasmus Benestad posted an article on RealClimate that I thought missed the mark rather badly. His main complaint seems to be that the simple…

2018-01-26 07:26   Click to comment

James Annan: More sensitivity stuff

After what feels like a very long hiatus, it seems that people are writing interesting stuff about climate sensitivity again. Just last week on Twitter I saw Andrew Dessler tweeting about his most recent manuscript which is up on ACP(D) for comment. My eyebrow was slightly raised at the range of values he found when analysing outputs of the MPI ensemble, 2.1 to 3.9K, until I realised that…

2018-01-18 10:32   Click to comment

James Annan: Implicit priors and the energy balance of the earth system

So, this old chestnut seems to keep on coming back....Back in 2002, Gregory et al proposed that we could generate “An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity” via the energy balance equation S = F2x dT/Q where S is the equilibrium sensitivity to 2xCO2, F2x = 3.7 is the (known constant) forcing of 2xCO2, dT is the observed surface air temperature change and Q is the net…

2017-11-30 22:06   Click to comment

James Annan: Watt's up with Pat Frank?

And now for your scheduled return to the climate blogosphere wars. I haven't missed it at all. Pat Frank has posted a rather tedious pile of blether on WTFUWT which mentions me, albeit tangentially. Well, maybe a bit more than tangentially. The story, such as it is, is that he submitted a paper (which apparently has been rejected 6 times already by different journals) to GMD where I'm an…

2017-11-15 15:06   Click to comment

James Annan: We have corporate sponsorship

I've been waiting a long time to use this clip! Finally signed our first contract for some work which is due to start shortly. It's not a huge project but should be interesting and generate some worthwhile results. We didn't really have to punch ourselves in the face or threaten to reveal the dirty secrets of climate modelling (jules already has a journal dedicated to that cause).If anyone…

2017-10-10 18:35   Click to comment

James Annan: Stockholm art

Stockholm has a modern art museum and we all know how important it is to open one's mind to surrealist thoughts before a science conference...We've never had a cargo disaster like this bicycle case, despite shipping 3 tandems across the oceans to Japan and back! I soon discovered one of the escaped bicycle wheels spinning in a corner: Wonder what beautiful piccies will be added to these…

2017-10-01 16:15   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Stockholm

#PMIP2017 was held in Stockholm. Maybe it was the unusual warmth and sunshine, but Stockholm seemed like a very happy kind of place. Nowhere else have I seen children swinging joyfully from the street signs. Construction is always good sign of prosperity...? Then there is the river Private yachts. Public life saving. --Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 10/01/2017 02:17:00 PM

2017-10-01 13:19   Click to comment

James Annan: Running hot...or not?

The question has been asked (repeatedly): are the CMIP models “running hot”? By which it is not meant, are the models too warm - they have a wide range of temperature biases which are normally subtracted off by the use of anomalies (which is a separate debate) - but whether they are warming up too much relative to observations. But I don't care about that, because I've been running too!…

2017-09-24 14:55   Click to comment


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