Site: James Annan

Slant: Lukewarmer

Active: yes

Recent Articles

James Annan: Trip to the 21st(?) Century

Went to Reading University last week, to do a lecture as part of a course for PhD students. The course was aimed at teaching paleodata students about models and how they might be useful for their research. A very good idea! Here are some students, and Joy (at the end of the bench) who was in charge, doing a lot of the teaching and most of the lecturing (a lot of work!) all while living up to…

2018-01-31 15:12   Click to comment

James Annan: Cox et al part 3

As promised some more on this. The first thing I thought, on seeing this paper – a feeling that others apparently shared – was, why had no-one else already thought of this? Had we all just behaved like the fabled economist who, when their companion points out a £10 note lying on the pavement, ignores it, saying "If there really was a £10 note, someone would have picked it up…

2018-01-29 10:26   Click to comment

James Annan: More about Cox et al.

Time to move this discussion onto the BlueSkiesResearch blog as it is, after all, directly related to my work. Previous post here but I might copy that over here too.Conversations about the Cox et al paper have continued on twitter and blogs. Firstly, Rasmus Benestad posted an article on RealClimate that I thought missed the mark rather badly. His main complaint seems to be that the simple…

2018-01-26 07:26   Click to comment

James Annan: More sensitivity stuff

After what feels like a very long hiatus, it seems that people are writing interesting stuff about climate sensitivity again. Just last week on Twitter I saw Andrew Dessler tweeting about his most recent manuscript which is up on ACP(D) for comment. My eyebrow was slightly raised at the range of values he found when analysing outputs of the MPI ensemble, 2.1 to 3.9K, until I realised that…

2018-01-18 10:32   Click to comment

James Annan: Implicit priors and the energy balance of the earth system

So, this old chestnut seems to keep on coming back....Back in 2002, Gregory et al proposed that we could generate “An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity” via the energy balance equation S = F2x dT/Q where S is the equilibrium sensitivity to 2xCO2, F2x = 3.7 is the (known constant) forcing of 2xCO2, dT is the observed surface air temperature change and Q is the net…

2017-11-30 22:06   Click to comment

James Annan: Watt's up with Pat Frank?

And now for your scheduled return to the climate blogosphere wars. I haven't missed it at all. Pat Frank has posted a rather tedious pile of blether on WTFUWT which mentions me, albeit tangentially. Well, maybe a bit more than tangentially. The story, such as it is, is that he submitted a paper (which apparently has been rejected 6 times already by different journals) to GMD where I'm an…

2017-11-15 15:06   Click to comment

James Annan: We have corporate sponsorship

I've been waiting a long time to use this clip! Finally signed our first contract for some work which is due to start shortly. It's not a huge project but should be interesting and generate some worthwhile results. We didn't really have to punch ourselves in the face or threaten to reveal the dirty secrets of climate modelling (jules already has a journal dedicated to that cause).If anyone…

2017-10-10 19:35   Click to comment

James Annan: Stockholm art

Stockholm has a modern art museum and we all know how important it is to open one's mind to surrealist thoughts before a science conference...We've never had a cargo disaster like this bicycle case, despite shipping 3 tandems across the oceans to Japan and back! I soon discovered one of the escaped bicycle wheels spinning in a corner: Wonder what beautiful piccies will be added to these…

2017-10-01 17:15   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Stockholm

#PMIP2017 was held in Stockholm. Maybe it was the unusual warmth and sunshine, but Stockholm seemed like a very happy kind of place. Nowhere else have I seen children swinging joyfully from the street signs. Construction is always good sign of prosperity...? Then there is the river Private yachts. Public life saving. --Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 10/01/2017 02:17:00 PM

2017-10-01 14:19   Click to comment

James Annan: Running hot...or not?

The question has been asked (repeatedly): are the CMIP models “running hot”? By which it is not meant, are the models too warm - they have a wide range of temperature biases which are normally subtracted off by the use of anomalies (which is a separate debate) - but whether they are warming up too much relative to observations. But I don't care about that, because I've been running too!…

2017-09-24 15:55   Click to comment

James Annan: Currywurst

I had curry for lunch on Thursday.It was the wurst!(Actually it was rather good, however we forgot to take a pic so you'll have to make do with this less appealing version from wikipedia.)By massive coincidence I saw this tweet from Gavin on the same day:Red team troubles... @curryja on the Heartland Institute roster of contrarians (via @scottpwaldman)— Gavin…

2017-09-23 17:08   Click to comment

James Annan: Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

New(ish, but I'm just getting round to writing about it) review article by Knutti et al on climate sensitivity. The detailed review of published estimates is impressive, a lot of work must have gone into that. It has been spotted that the Callendar estimate is wrong: the value in the paper is about 1.8C for a doubling of CO2, which is rather lower than the value plotted in the figure. (This…

2017-09-21 09:00   Click to comment

James Annan: Make our Planet Great Again

Our kind host has pointed us towards the German call for applications for 4-year fellowships under the joint France-Germany “Make our Planet Great Again” program. This was originally Macron's brainchild, which attracted a certain amount of media attention possibly disproportionate to its scientific importance. Now the Germans have jumped on board with an essentially parallel (albeit…

2017-09-19 10:00   Click to comment

James Annan: More D&A and FvB.

By chance I happened to notice another paper with an interesting title appearing in Climatic Change on the very same day as the recent Mann et al paper: Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies? While my noticing it was fortuitous, the publication date was no coincidence, as it was clearly intended as a "comment on" in all but name. I am not…

2017-09-18 11:37   Click to comment

James Annan: Winton betting market

There could be something paywalled in the FT about this, the global warming policy foundation forum farce have copied a bit and managed to post a quote from somewhere saying"A leading global warming expert believes that the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a "big gamble" as temperatures have not increased since 1997"Not really much of an expert then.I heard about the Winton…

2017-09-13 15:00   Click to comment

James Annan: Blue Skies Research Ltd!

After thinking about it for a few years we have finally bitten the bullet and incorporated Blue Skies Research Ltd as a private company. Since there are two of us, we couldn’t very well set up as a sole trader and a partnership didn’t seem particularly attractive either. For our situation, the tax situation seems fairly similar in all cases: income tax and NI contributions on the one hand,…

2017-09-13 09:24   Click to comment

James Annan: Encyclopedia of Geosciences

As per title. A work in progress (well, hardly started) so I wouldn't want to be too critical. A prize for the first person to find out where “climate change” is located.That's all for now :-)

2017-09-09 14:18   Click to comment

James Annan: More on Bayesian approaches to detection and attribution

Timely given events all over the place, this new paper by Mann et al has just appeared. It's a well-aimed jab at the detection and attribution industry which could perhaps be held substantially responsible for the sterile “debate” over the extent to which AGW has influenced extreme events (and/or will do so in the future). I've argued against D&A several times in the past (such as here,

2017-09-07 10:37   Click to comment

James Annan: Well-tossed word salad with French dressing

Bjorn put on a little conference last week in honour of our visit (or if you prefer alternative facts, we made sure our dates included the meeting). Mostly, it consisted of an up-to-date compendium of what people are currently doing in climate model development which was very interesting to us now we aren't based in a lab. Of course this work tends to be fairly incremental stuff so having a…

2017-09-06 09:00   Click to comment

James Annan: Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

Paper with the above title just appeared in GMD. Despite being a European English-language journal we welcome Americans and even Americanisms, so I'll quote the title as written rather than as it should be :-) In this paper, Gavin has nicely summarised (or perhaps I may say, summarized) how approaches to model tuning vary throughout the US climate science community.It's a slightly unusual…

2017-09-05 13:52   Click to comment

James Annan: Hamburg revisited

Yes we're in Hamburg again, which at least partially explains the ferry. We are back at the Max-Plank Institut für Meteorologie for another visit courtesy of Bjorn Stevens and Thorsten Mauritsen. Who is not Mauritian despite the attempts of my spellchecker to make him so! Going by ferry enabled us to bring bicycles (in the new stealth camper van) and rent an apartment a little way out of the…

2017-09-02 07:30   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] ships - Harwich to Hook of Holland

So much more civilised than flying... especially when transporting a tandem. --Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 8/26/2017 08:43:00 PM

2017-08-26 20:45   Click to comment

James Annan: Bishop's Castle Tandem Triathlon

We were aware of this annual event many years ago before we went to Japan. However, back then I didn't run and jules was not that regular a swimmer, so we never got round to entering it. The last couple of years since returning from Japan it has clashed with our local club triathlon so it was only this year that we finally got round to doing it for the first time. It's a very informal event…

2017-07-07 12:29   Click to comment

James Annan: The Verdict

I'm probably supposed to be doing some climate science, but that's not been top priority recently (might be different if someone was paying me to do it). Actually there is some slow progress and there will probably be something to report eventually. But it's all gone a bit boring in advance of the next CMIP experiments and IPCC report.So, this is more politics. After the arbitration, the…

2017-06-10 13:47   Click to comment

James Annan: Arbitration

My reader is probably waiting with bated breath for my views on the forthcoming election. In the blue corner, Teresa “strong and stable” May (or should that be “u-turn when you want to”). In the red, Jeremy “don't mention the brother” Corbyn. In the ignored corner, Nutter and Failing and a few others.Of course, it's all about brexit, so there hasn't been any sort of meaningful…

2017-06-05 12:46   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] Pond

Hornby Castle belongs to someone who I was at primary school with for a few years before he went to Eeeeton. I probably only remember this because his grandmother joked about having to take out a second mortgage on the castle in order to afford the uniform. Oliver won't remember me, of course, especially as he is a few years younger, but he sometimes opens his castle gardens up to visitors.…

2017-05-21 17:59   Click to comment

James Annan: Peak performance

A few weeks ago, I took part in the annual Three Peaks Race (spring version). In contrast to the autumn version that jules and I helped to marshall, participants in the spring event do not have to carry a bicycle but may walk or jog unencumbered bar a waterproof layer and bar of chocolate. Not too much walking though, as the time cut-offs are fairly severe. A 4 week gap from Manchester…

2017-05-19 21:52   Click to comment

James Annan: Ich bin ein Hamburger

We are currently at MPI Hamburg courtesy of Thorsten Mauritsen. Just here for the week but planning a longer visit later in the year. I haven’t been here before, and jules has not particularly great memories of a brief meeting elsewhere in Hamburg 20 years ago, so the city has been a pleasant surprise so far. Got here yesterday just in time for a jog to the lake and back in the Sunday…

2017-05-09 14:43   Click to comment

James Annan: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks

The recent NCC paper of that name prompted a comment. Plausible? Yes, certainly. This idea has been doing the rounds for some time, the basic idea being that the response to radiative forcing is not precisely as would be predicted from a simple energy balance model with a fixed sensitivity in which the radiative feedback depends solely on the global mean temperature anomaly, but rather one in…

2017-04-30 16:54   Click to comment

James Annan: [jules' pics] The morning after the night before

If you let them keep your contact details then, as well as sending you news on their latest fundraising scheme, your Oxbridge college will invite you back for din dins every decade or so. These days it isn't entirely free, but still a good deal considering the liver damage they try to cause you. Maybe the college is hoping the experience will make us all feel more mortal and rush home and make…

2017-04-09 21:31   Click to comment

comments powered by Disqus