Site: Clive Best

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Clive Best: 3D visualisation of Earth Science data

WebGL is a Javascript implementation of OpenGL which runs via your web browser locally on your graphics hardware. Nick Stokes has developed an interface to visualise 3D global  data such as temperatures on the earth. Here is an example for my March 2017 data. …

2017-04-28 15:35   Click to comment

Clive Best: Climate Change pattern similar to weather

These two animations show monthly global temperature anomalies from 1990 to 2017. There seems to be a multi-annual anticyclonic circulation of  air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere with a stronger cyclonic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Multi-annual temperature distributions would appear to follow the …

2017-04-25 10:57   Click to comment

Clive Best: Nights warm faster

NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) publishes 3 different monthly temperature sets for each of the ~7000 weather stations. 1) Average Temperatures 2) Minimum Temperatures 3) Maximum Temperatures. Seasonal variations are averaged out over a 30 year normalisation period to …

2017-04-19 10:28   Click to comment

Clive Best: Visualising 20 years of Climate Change

I have been experimenting with different ways to visualise triangulated global temperature data in 3D. Here are the monthly anomaly values for the last 20 years. Of course you can only see one side of the earth at a time, so …

2017-04-17 15:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Two Cold Winters

The coldest winter months seen  in Europe over the last 150 years have been 1963 and 2010. They have remarkably similar temperature distributions due to strong negative Arctic Oscillations pulling Arctic air down over Europe and America. As a result …

2017-04-03 06:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Visualising Spherical Grids

I have found a much faster way to display spherical grids based on IDL object graphics. This uses OGL hardware support. I chose the warmest month ever recorded (March 2016) to show  results. First here is the grid rotated about …

2017-03-30 03:19   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical Triangulation

After 5 days on Heron Island and a narrow escape from Cyclone Debbie, I am now back to spherical gridding! The most elegant method for spatial integration of irregular temperature data must surely be spherical triangulation over  the earth’s surface. …

2017-03-28 07:15   Click to comment

Clive Best: European Winters

The technique of triangulation of station data allows a neat way of visualising regional “climate change” and also the year to year variation.  Here are two animations for Europe. First a replay of 2016. The second animation shows all winter …

2017-03-14 09:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: A new Global Temperature Calculation

In recent posts I have been combining GHCN V3C station data with Hadley HADSST3 Ocean data. The station data are located at specific locations, while HADSST3 data are recorded sporadically within a regular 5×5 degree grid. In addition active station locations …

2017-03-12 21:33   Click to comment

Clive Best: Tweaking Global Temperature Data

The “kriging” biases described in the previous post can be mostly avoided by using  ‘spherical’ triangulation. This treats the earth as a sphere and triangulates all measurement points onto the earth’s surface.  In this case vertex angles no longer add …

2017-03-11 00:07   Click to comment

Clive Best: Kriging biases in global temperature data

I have made a new calculation of global temperatures using 7300 NOAA/NCDC V3c station data combined with HadSST3 ocean temperature. For the ocean data I use cell locations only where measurements exist for a given month.  I then make a (lat,lon) triangulation …

2017-03-03 08:10   Click to comment

Clive Best: Kriging of Hadcrut4.5 data

Here  is the result of a Gaussian ‘kriging’ of  Hadcrut4.5 temperature anomalies for February 2016. This is essentially what Cowtan & Way do. This clearly shows why the global average of the kriged data gives larger values than Hadcrut4.5 when anomalies at …

2017-02-21 12:34   Click to comment

Clive Best: Cowtan & Way airbrushing

The Cowtan & Way version of Hadcrut4 uses a kriging technique to extrapolate values into those parts of the world where there are no direct measurements. Originally I had assumed that this fit was guided by the use of UAH …

2017-02-20 15:04   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temperature data averaged 3 ways

How should you calculate annual global temperature data? We start with Hadcrut4.5 gridded monthly data defined on a 5×5 degree grid and then form the global area weighted average in 3 different ways. Integrate the annual anomaly  over month,lat & …

2017-02-14 18:51   Click to comment

Clive Best: Meridional warming

In this post I am going to present global temperature data in a different way to highlight how the earth cools by transporting heat from the tropics to the poles. This shows that enhanced CO2 warming is mainly concentrated in northern latitudes. To do …

2017-02-02 10:47   Click to comment

Clive Best: Does Antarctica initiate glaciations?

Attempts to explain the last million years of glacial cycles have concentrated mainly on the growth of Northern Ice sheets. Traditionally the summer insolation at 65N is thought to control the growth and extent of ice sheets, with interglacials coinciding …

2017-01-31 18:08   Click to comment

Clive Best: Central England Temperatures 1659-2016

There has been no change in UK average temperatures in summer(JJA) or in Spring(MAM) for the last 367 years. The two hottest summers were 1826 (17.6C) and 1976(17.8C). I remember 1976 as the perfect summer with two months of continuous sunshine, causing a …

2017-01-28 17:31   Click to comment

Clive Best: Do Global Temperatures make sense?

How would you measure the temperature of the earth from mars? Well you could measure the infra red spectrum of the earth and then fit it to a black body spectrum to derive T. If you did that you would get an answer of about …

2017-01-27 16:14   Click to comment

Clive Best: Carbon Circular logic

The cornerstone of climate science must be the enhanced greenhouse effect caused by rising CO2 levels. Therefore understanding how CO2 may increase in the future is of fundamental importance, and you would assume that any Earth Systems Model(ESM) should as a minimum be able …

2017-01-05 18:26   Click to comment

Clive Best: Bern Model when emissions stabilised at 2013 levels

The Bern model has been used by IPCC for emission scenarios since SAR in 1995. We will now use it to extrapolate CO2 levels 500 years into the future with annual emissions fixed at 2013 levels (~10 GT C/year). All values are expressed …

2016-12-23 17:29   Click to comment

Clive Best: A realistic CO2 stabilisation scenario

This is a guest post by “Frank” based on his comment to  Stabilising Climate. He argues that CO2 levels will stabilise at ~520 ppm, which agrees with an estimate given by Ferdinand  Engelbeen here quoted below: My rough estimate is that with the current emissions …

2016-12-21 15:02   Click to comment

Clive Best: Simple Model for rebalancing stable CO2 emissions

As requested by @richardbetts and @edhawkins here is a simple model to back up the arguments from the previous post – Stabilising Climate. Simple Model CO2 levels rise when the rate of change of the sources – S exceeds the rate …

2016-12-15 17:45   Click to comment

Clive Best: Stabilising Climate

In order to stop global warming all we really have to do is to stabilise CO2 emissions, not reduce them to zero!  One of the ‘myths’ promoted by IPCC climate scientists is that we have to stop burning any fossil …

2016-12-11 19:14   Click to comment

Clive Best: Is the Supermoon responsible for record low Polar ice formation?

The  “Supermoon”  on November 14th coincided with the closest (perigean) approach to the earth of the moon since 1948. Tidal forces are inversely proportional to the cube of distance. Full moon occurs  when the sun lines up with the moon …

2016-11-21 21:09   Click to comment

Clive Best: Carbon Recycling

The carbon cycle can be rather confusing as there are at least 3 totally separate processes at play, each occurring on different time scales. Here we show that it is just geological processes that result in a ‘long tail’ as the atmosphere …

2016-11-02 19:09   Click to comment

Clive Best: Insolation study

Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude gradient …

2016-10-24 09:37   Click to comment

Clive Best: When is the next Ice Age due?

All of Human civilization fits neatly into the current interglacial period. The development of agriculture, settlements and societies were all enabled by a beneficial climate  for the last  10,000 years. Interglacials usually average ~10,000 years so is our luck about to …

2016-10-04 10:43   Click to comment

Clive Best: Ocean Heat Content variability.

Kevin Trenberth once claimed that the hiatus in warming from 1998 to 2014 was simply due to ‘missing’ heat being sequestered in the oceans. The annual global heat content to 700m indeed did show a rise, as estimated by measured temperature profile …

2016-09-30 13:57   Click to comment

Clive Best: CET temperature trends

UK temperatures essentially show no obvious warming for July over the last  365 years. There has however been a small warming effect in  January since 1970, which may just be related to rapid population growth. The Central England Temperature (CET) measurements is the longest continuous …

2016-09-21 22:10   Click to comment

Clive Best: The forgotten Milankovitch effect – Tides

The obliquity of the earth’s spin axis varies over a 41000y cycle between 14.5 and 22.2 degrees. The canonical work on calculating Milankovitch cycles has been done by J. Laskar and his team at the Observatoire de Paris[1]. Changes in …

2016-08-19 10:21   Click to comment


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