Site: Clive Best

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Clive Best: Changing temperature anomaly baselines

I wanted to check whether the choice of baseline can affect the calculation of global temperature anomalies from station data. Each temperature index (GISS, Berkeley, CRU) uses different normalisation periods for calculating weather station temperature anomalies. I was surprised to …

2019-02-27 10:41   Click to comment

Clive Best: January 2019 global average temperature remains unchanged – 0.73 C

Global averaged surface temperature for January 2019 was 0.73C using my spherical triangulation method merging GHCNV3 with HadSST3. This is unchanged since December 2018. The baseline used is always 1961-1990. The Northern Hemisphere is shown here. and here is the …

2019-02-21 13:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: How does temperature depend on CO2?

Robert Rohde has produced a very nice animation of global temperatures as a function of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Of course it is designed for public relations purposes in order to show increasing CO2 causes warming. He even uses …

2019-02-15 18:54   Click to comment

Clive Best: 2018 Temperature Comparisons

The US Government shutdown delayed the release of the December GHCN station data. This also, perhaps surprisingly, also delayed the the Met Office/CRU results. So just how independent are they one from each other? Here is a comparison of the …

2019-02-07 17:53   Click to comment

Clive Best: Zeke’s Wonder Plot

Zeke Hausfather who works for Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth has produced a plot which shows almost perfect agreement between CMIP5 model projections and global temperature data. This is based on RCP4.5 models and a baseline of 1981-2010. First here …

2019-01-25 11:59   Click to comment

Clive Best: A comparison of CMIP5 Climate Models with HadCRUT4.6

Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RCPs, which themselves only diverge after ~2025. Modern Climate models originate from Global Circulation …

2019-01-21 17:56   Click to comment

Clive Best: Global Temperatures – the big picture

Suppose you wanted to measure whether the total number of ants on earth has been increasing. The number of ants at any given place depends on location and on season. Let’s assume that today there are 10,000 botanists at fixed …

2019-01-14 11:15   Click to comment

Clive Best: Denied

I have just finished reading the book ‘Denied’ by Richard Black, the director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) and ex-BBC environment editor. It is well written and easy to read. He claims to demolish the climate “contrarian” …

2019-01-03 21:56   Click to comment

Clive Best: November 2018 global temperature falls 0.12C

Global averaged surface temperature for November 2018 was 0.63C using my spherical triangulation method merging GHCNV3 with HadSST3. This is a fall of 0.12C since October. The baseline used is always 1961-1990. With just one month to go this ensures …

2018-12-08 14:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: October global temperature is 0.75C

Global averaged temperature for October 2018 was 0.75C based on merging GHCNV3 with HadSST3 and using spherical triangulation. This is a fairly large rise of 0.14C since September. The baseline for temperature anomalies is always 1961-1990. The annual value for …

2018-11-14 10:12   Click to comment

Clive Best: Towards an understanding of Ice Ages

An Ice model driven by NH insolation but adjusted for dust albedo does a pretty good job at reproducing the last 8 glacial cycles. Details are described below. Prior to the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT) roughly one million years ago, …

2018-10-31 17:35   Click to comment

Clive Best: September global temperature falls 0.08C from August

Global temperatures for September 2018 were 0.61C based on merging GHCNV3 with HadSST3 and using spherical triangulation. This is a fall of 0.08C since August. The baseline for temperature anomalies is always 1961-1990. The annual average so far (9 months) …

2018-10-16 16:34   Click to comment

Clive Best: The Milankovitch Puzzle

The main focus in understanding Glacial cycles has been on the maximum summer insolation at 65N, yet prior to MPT (Mid Pleistocene Transition) all glaciations simply followed the obliquity cycle. To understand why obliquity is the underlying metronome, we need …

2018-10-10 21:17   Click to comment

Clive Best: Ice Age insights

The discussion on the ‘dust’ theory of ice age termination at Judith Curry brought a couple of other interesting papers to light. This has started me thinking again about how recent deep glaciations terminate. Such glacial cycles apparently now only …

2018-09-19 17:49   Click to comment

Clive Best: GHCN August 2018 temp = 0.69C

Global temperatures for August 2018 were 0.69C based on merging GHCNV3 and HadSST3, and using spherical triangulation. The baseline for temperature anomalies is 1961-1990. The annual average so far (8 months) for 2018 is 0.66C. 2018 is continuing a post …

2018-09-18 14:02   Click to comment

Clive Best: July’s Hadcrut4.6(3D) = 0.65C

My preferred method for calculating the global average temperature anomaly for HADCRUT4.6 is by triangulating the measurements over the surface of a sphere. This gives almost identical results to those of Cowtan & Way but is a far simpler and …

2018-08-30 18:02   Click to comment

Clive Best: The relationship of CO2 to temperature

Is temperature a function of CO2 or is CO2 a function of temperature i.e. Is T=f(CO2) or CO2=f(T) ? The answer according to Richard Betts is both, because increasing CO2 warms the planet but levels in the atmosphere also respond …

2018-08-29 14:50   Click to comment

Clive Best: The Birth of Continents.

This animation of a new Paleo Digital elevation model, appears rather like a foetus developing. Plate tectonics actually ennables life on earth Here is a 3D view of the violent ‘birth’ of India and the Himalayas. and finally the formation …

2018-08-23 21:55   Click to comment

Clive Best: HADCRUT4.6 for June 2018

The CRUTEM4.6 weather station data for June 2018 has just been published, which when combined with the HadSST3 sea surface temperature data forms the global average – HadCRUT4.6. The traditional method for calculating this is by binning all the station …

2018-07-30 08:29   Click to comment

Clive Best: UK Heatwaves and Climate Change

The UK is experiencing a prolonged heatwave which could exceed that of the exceptional 1976 summer. It is an “Endless Summer” – like that surf movie. So is climate change to blame? Climate Change is happening but what that really …

2018-07-27 13:33   Click to comment

Clive Best: Has Gaia really been explained?

I was interested in a new paper which claims to be able to explain the Gaia hypothesis, first proposed by James lovelock, that life stabilises the earth’s climate.  The paper is described in an article in the Conversation. The paper …

2018-07-04 16:01   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spatial rainfall distribution

Rainfall anomalies also have monthly spatial distributions analogous to those for temperature. North Atlantic storms in January 2014 brought flooding to Western England. That month’s distribution shows  that abnormally high rainfall also affected the western coastlines of France, Spain and …

2018-06-20 10:32   Click to comment

Clive Best: Global Rainfall

Has rainfall increased or decreased with rising temperatures? NCDC Daily contains the raw precipitation measurements from about 100,000 weather stations back to 1780. I put my computer  (iMAC-i7) to calculate this , but it took a week of CPU time!  Here …

2018-06-16 11:32   Click to comment

Clive Best: UK Power Generation 2017-18

The balancing of energy supply with demand on the UK National Grid is performed by ELEXON and as a result they provide a live snapshot of the power generated to match that demand  by fuel type. I have been monitored …

2018-06-07 21:22   Click to comment

Clive Best: 19th Century Volcanic Eruptions

There is clear evidence of a cooling effect in the GHCN-Daily data resulting from large volcanic eruptions during the 19th and 18th century.  If an eruption of a similar size to Tambora were to occur today it would (temporarily) cancel …

2018-05-30 11:38   Click to comment

Clive Best: GHCN-Daily Temperature Anomaly Results

Shown below are my new Global land temperature anomalies calculated directly from daily  temperature measurements of over 35300 weather stations (NCDC-Daily) compared to Berkeley Earth. The NCDC-Daily archive extends back to 1762, although coverage then is mostly restricted to central …

2018-05-29 20:20   Click to comment

Clive Best: A new analysis of Global Land Daily temperature data

This post describes my attempt to reproduce global temperatures from scratch. By scratch I mean using all the original  raw temperature measurements from the NCDC daily weather archive without adjustments. The largest accessible archive of raw temperature measurements is the …

2018-04-19 10:13   Click to comment

Clive Best: Tidal effects on the Jet Stream this winter

The “Beast from the East” blast of freezing temperatures resulted from a strong kink in the Jet Stream dragging Siberian air over Europe. This was evident by a sharp drop in the Arctic Oscillation coincident with strong tides over northern …

2018-04-07 17:17   Click to comment

Clive Best: Berkeley Daily Temperature Anomalies

Berkeley Earth have a new analysis of global daily temperature anomalies, which also shows a long term fall in diurnal temperature ranges. I found and plotted the data via Twitter thanks to Robert Rohde ! If anyone is interested, Berkeley …

2018-04-07 13:14   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temperature Anomalies and ‘Abnormalities’

Why do we use temperature anomalies instead of absolute temperatures even when studying small regions like the UK? The last post showed that maximum annual ACORN-SAT  temperatures for Australia show little change since 1910, whereas maximum temperature anomalies did indeed show …

2018-03-31 09:36   Click to comment


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