Site: Clive Best

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Clive Best: Spherical Triangulation gives identical results to Cowtan & Way

The Cowtan and Way temperature anomaly based on HadCRUT4.6 for 2017 has been released and it is 0.74C. This is uncannily similar to that calculated by Spherical Triangulation which is 0.73C. In fact both methods give essentially the same results …

2018-01-30 10:44   Click to comment

Clive Best: A look at HadCRUT4.6 Icosahedral binning

This post uses the underlying HadCRUT4.6 data to examine the small differences in global temperatures resulting from the choice of spatial binning. HadCRUT4.6  is based on 7680 monthly CRUTEM4 station data and HADSST3 Sea Surface temperature data. Temperature anomalies are …

2018-01-23 10:05   Click to comment

Clive Best: 2017 is 3rd warmest year

The December 2017 data for ocean temperatures (HADSST3) and station data (CRUTEM4) were released today. I calculate that December (0.66C) was slightly cooler than November (0.67C) and that the final  2017 annual temperature anomaly was 0.73C. This makes 2017 the …

2018-01-18 21:41   Click to comment

Clive Best: When is the next Ice Age due ?

According to Emily Shuckburgh and Prof. Erik Wolf  in a letter to the Times , the next Ice Age is not expected for another 50,000 years. Their claim seems to be based on a 2016 paper in Nature by Andrey Ganopolski,  …

2018-01-11 19:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: A new measurement of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)

A dynamic analysis of global temperature data  gives a value of ECS = 2.5C ± 0.5C . Values above 3.0C or below 2.0C are ruled out. This analysis is based on two assumptions: 1) That net climate forcing follows that …

2018-01-03 18:27   Click to comment

Clive Best: November temperature down 0.04C

My value for the November global average temperature is 0.65C, down 0.04C since October. The yearly average for 2017 ( 11 months) is now 0.73C making it equal to 2015 and 0.1C cooler than 2016. These are based on Spherical …

2017-12-11 13:26   Click to comment

Clive Best: HadCRUT 4.6 temperatures compared

CRUTEM station data for October was released a few days ago. So I can now make a direct comparison of different surface averaging methodologies. The calculated October temperature anomaly for the 3 different spatial averages, as described previously are the following …

2017-12-07 10:39   Click to comment

Clive Best: Icosahedral Binning

The earth is roughly a sphere so an unbiased method to bin surface temperature data is to treat the surface itself in 3D. Ideally each bin should cover exactly the same surface area, so that the global average is simply …

2017-12-05 10:19   Click to comment

Clive Best: El Niño 1998 & 2016

Here are the two El Niño maxima of the last 20 years, both of which caused peaks in global temperatures for the following year (1998 and 2016) The Pacific releases vast amounts of acquired heat to the atmosphere roughly every …

2017-12-03 17:13   Click to comment

Clive Best: Station Data Viewer

This is a 5-year old interface to view CRUTEM3 station data. Enable Flash to view it. Zoom in by dragging a rectangle. Click on a station to view the long term trend. Click anywhere to zoom out. The graphs show …

2017-11-29 09:51   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temp anomaly for October = 0.69C

I have combined GHCN V3 data with HadSST3 to calculate the  temperature anomaly using the same timebase as HADCRUT4, using my Spherical Triangulation algorithm. The resulting global average value is 0.69C. The spatial temperature distribution is shown below. The global …

2017-11-27 18:10   Click to comment

Clive Best: HadCRUT4.5 anomaly for September 2017 = 0.54C

The HadCRUT4.5 temperature anomaly for September calculated by spherical triangulation is 0.54C, a fall of 0.17C since August. Temperatures have seemingly returned to a long trend after the 2016 El Nino. The temperature distribution in the Northern Hemisphere for September …

2017-10-29 11:20   Click to comment

Clive Best: Lithium in Chile

I just returned from the Atacama desert in Chile, where I was surprised to discover that 30% of world Lithium production comes from the Salar de Atacama. This huge salt flat covers ~3000 square km and is the driest (non-polar) …

2017-10-29 10:15   Click to comment

Clive Best: Carbon Budgets

It started as a nice simple idea: There is a finite amount of Carbon that humanity can burn before the planet warms above 2C. This idea was based on  AR5  Earth Systems Models (ESMs) ‘showing’ that the relationship between global …

2017-10-03 17:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Calculating global temperature anomalies using three new methods.

Abstract Deriving global temperatures anomalies involves the surface averaging of normalized ocean and station temperature data that are inhomogeneously distributed in both space and time. Different groups have adopted different averaging schemes to deal with this problem. For example GISS …

2017-09-05 14:21   Click to comment

Clive Best: Global absolute temperature

Is there such a thing as a global absolute temperature of the earth’s surface? The temperature at any point on the earth’s surface is forever changing, hour to hour, night to day and with the seasons.  A  global average temperature …

2017-08-14 13:03   Click to comment

Clive Best: “Unprecedented” Rainfall ?

A recent Met Office press release , which was taken up by the BBC and most national newspapers, claimed the following: “New innovative research has found that for England and Wales there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new monthly …

2017-07-29 17:07   Click to comment

Clive Best: How to normalise temperature anomalies

Update 2/7/17: I used the wrong GISS data (land only) in the comparison as pointed out by @cce! Agreement now is reasonably good for all temperature series. This is my crib sheet for comparing temperature anomalies across ground and satellite …

2017-06-30 11:31   Click to comment

Clive Best: Updated monitors of UK Power Generation

I have updated my monitoring of UK Power production to include Solar Energy. These are calculated by the University of Sheffield on behalf of the National Grid. Solar Energy and embedded wind farms are not metered centrally but appear as …

2017-06-20 15:52   Click to comment

Clive Best: Central England Temperatures – Spring Record

The Met Office announced that this Spring saw record temperatures in  Wales and Northern Ireland. England was 2nd warmest behind 2011, while Scotland was  fifth warmest. However it was the Central England Temperature (CET) record which seems to have hit …

2017-06-16 19:05   Click to comment

Clive Best: Mid Pliocene Warm Period

Is the warm period in the Mid Pliocene analogous to today’s warming climate? If so can we use it to infer future temperature rise? This is what Wikipedia says: The mid Pliocene warm period is considered a potential analog of …

2017-06-15 15:55   Click to comment

Clive Best: Blog exchange with ATTP

The academic blogger who goes by the slightly pretentious name of … andthentheresPhysics is a dogged character who never concedes any point. When you think you have him pinned down, he wriggles out and insists on having the last word. …

2017-06-13 20:45   Click to comment

Clive Best: April H4.5-ST = 0.80C

The average anomaly for April 2017 of HADCRUT4.5  using Spherical Triangulation (ST) is 0.80C. This is 0.06C higher than the standard 5 degree gridded result (0.74C). It is the years which have high Arctic anomalies which differ the most. Here …

2017-05-27 21:12   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical triangulation of Hadcrut4.5 = Cowtan & Way

The spatial integration of irregular temperature data (CRUTEM4) using spherical triangulation removes any coverage bias.  I have made a spherical triangulation of the CRUTEM4 station data combined with HSST3 ocean temperature data. This is essentially Hadcrut4.5, but instead of using a (lat,lon) …

2017-05-20 18:54   Click to comment

Clive Best: The Ed Hawkins zonal animation

There is a new animation by Ed Hawkins which shows a comparison of zonal mean temperatures with latitude, between observations and models. It is a very nice animation but it all looked a little bit too good to me, so …

2017-05-17 11:04   Click to comment


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