Site: Clive Best

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Clive Best: A new analysis of Global Land Daily temperature data

This post describes my attempt to reproduce global temperatures from scratch. By scratch I mean using all the original  raw temperature measurements from the NCDC daily weather archive without adjustments. The largest accessible archive of raw temperature measurements is the …

2018-04-19 11:13   Click to comment

Clive Best: Tidal effects on the Jet Stream this winter

The “Beast from the East” blast of freezing temperatures resulted from a strong kink in the Jet Stream dragging Siberian air over Europe. This was evident by a sharp drop in the Arctic Oscillation coincident with strong tides over northern …

2018-04-07 18:17   Click to comment

Clive Best: Berkeley Daily Temperature Anomalies

Berkeley Earth have a new analysis of global daily temperature anomalies, which also shows a long term fall in diurnal temperature ranges. I found and plotted the data via Twitter thanks to Robert Rohde ! If anyone is interested, Berkeley …

2018-04-07 14:14   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temperature Anomalies and ‘Abnormalities’

Why do we use temperature anomalies instead of absolute temperatures even when studying small regions like the UK? The last post showed that maximum annual ACORN-SAT  temperatures for Australia show little change since 1910, whereas maximum temperature anomalies did indeed show …

2018-03-31 10:36   Click to comment

Clive Best: Australia is not getting warmer. It is getting less cold !

Maximum temperatures in Australia are on average not increasing at all. Instead an increase in minimum temperatures explains the ~1C warming observed since 1910. All these results are from ACORN-SAT which have already been adjusted and homogenised.  They are the …

2018-03-26 21:05   Click to comment

Clive Best: Australian extreme temperatures are falling

The annual range of temperature extremes in Australia is reducing as the continent warms. The annual temperature range is the maximum recorded temperature for that year minus the minimum recorded temperature. The annual continental average is the area weighted average …

2018-03-22 15:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: Australian Raw temperature results

Homogenisation more often then not increases warming trends. ACORN-SAT is based on 112 stations, many of which are combinations of nearby stations which are then all homogenised.  However there are actually a total 1805 individual stations scattered about Australia, most of …

2018-03-20 10:35   Click to comment

Clive Best: Homogenisation – 3 examples

Here we look at some subtle changes in trends that result from what should be a step wise procedure of combining different station relocations in order to create a continuous temperature series for ACORN-SAT. The following three sites have been …

2018-03-10 19:16   Click to comment

Clive Best: Raw data shows no warming in Australia

I have the raw measurement data for all 112 stations used by ACORN-SAT.  So I processed the daily minimum and maximum temperatures in exactly the same way as for the homogenised data. Here is the result. The raw result shows …

2018-03-08 19:07   Click to comment

Clive Best: ACORN-SAT analysis

The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network (ACORN) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) is BOM’s ‘homogenised’ temperatures from 112 stations around Australia. These consist of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each station from 1910 to 2017. I downloaded all the data and …

2018-03-07 14:57   Click to comment

Clive Best: Warming in Australia occurs mostly inland and at night.

The previous post showed that there are just two long term timings of temperature measurements at Australian weather stations – 9am and 3pm. I next divided the stations into inland and maritime, where maritime are those stations either located on …

2018-03-05 18:24   Click to comment

Clive Best: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) hourly temperature data

I have always wondered exactly how those nice homogenised monthly temperature averages for some 7000 weather stations within CRUTEM and GHCN were actually produced. This is the first part of my investigation. A vast amount of raw temperature data has …

2018-03-03 20:06   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical Triangulation gives identical results to Cowtan & Way

The Cowtan and Way temperature anomaly based on HadCRUT4.6 for 2017 has been released and it is 0.74C. This is uncannily similar to that calculated by Spherical Triangulation which is 0.73C. In fact both methods give essentially the same results …

2018-01-30 10:44   Click to comment

Clive Best: A look at HadCRUT4.6 Icosahedral binning

This post uses the underlying HadCRUT4.6 data to examine the small differences in global temperatures resulting from the choice of spatial binning. HadCRUT4.6  is based on 7680 monthly CRUTEM4 station data and HADSST3 Sea Surface temperature data. Temperature anomalies are …

2018-01-23 10:05   Click to comment

Clive Best: 2017 is 3rd warmest year

The December 2017 data for ocean temperatures (HADSST3) and station data (CRUTEM4) were released today. I calculate that December (0.66C) was slightly cooler than November (0.67C) and that the final  2017 annual temperature anomaly was 0.73C. This makes 2017 the …

2018-01-18 21:41   Click to comment

Clive Best: When is the next Ice Age due ?

According to Emily Shuckburgh and Prof. Erik Wolf  in a letter to the Times , the next Ice Age is not expected for another 50,000 years. Their claim seems to be based on a 2016 paper in Nature by Andrey Ganopolski,  …

2018-01-11 19:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: A new measurement of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)

A dynamic analysis of global temperature data  gives a value of ECS = 2.5C ± 0.5C . Values above 3.0C or below 2.0C are ruled out. This analysis is based on two assumptions: 1) That net climate forcing follows that …

2018-01-03 18:27   Click to comment

Clive Best: November temperature down 0.04C

My value for the November global average temperature is 0.65C, down 0.04C since October. The yearly average for 2017 ( 11 months) is now 0.73C making it equal to 2015 and 0.1C cooler than 2016. These are based on Spherical …

2017-12-11 13:26   Click to comment

Clive Best: HadCRUT 4.6 temperatures compared

CRUTEM station data for October was released a few days ago. So I can now make a direct comparison of different surface averaging methodologies. The calculated October temperature anomaly for the 3 different spatial averages, as described previously are the following …

2017-12-07 10:39   Click to comment

Clive Best: Icosahedral Binning

The earth is roughly a sphere so an unbiased method to bin surface temperature data is to treat the surface itself in 3D. Ideally each bin should cover exactly the same surface area, so that the global average is simply …

2017-12-05 10:19   Click to comment

Clive Best: El Niño 1998 & 2016

Here are the two El Niño maxima of the last 20 years, both of which caused peaks in global temperatures for the following year (1998 and 2016) The Pacific releases vast amounts of acquired heat to the atmosphere roughly every …

2017-12-03 17:13   Click to comment

Clive Best: Station Data Viewer

This is a 5-year old interface to view CRUTEM3 station data. Enable Flash to view it. Zoom in by dragging a rectangle. Click on a station to view the long term trend. Click anywhere to zoom out. The graphs show …

2017-11-29 09:51   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temp anomaly for October = 0.69C

I have combined GHCN V3 data with HadSST3 to calculate the  temperature anomaly using the same timebase as HADCRUT4, using my Spherical Triangulation algorithm. The resulting global average value is 0.69C. The spatial temperature distribution is shown below. The global …

2017-11-27 18:10   Click to comment

Clive Best: HadCRUT4.5 anomaly for September 2017 = 0.54C

The HadCRUT4.5 temperature anomaly for September calculated by spherical triangulation is 0.54C, a fall of 0.17C since August. Temperatures have seemingly returned to a long trend after the 2016 El Nino. The temperature distribution in the Northern Hemisphere for September …

2017-10-29 11:20   Click to comment

Clive Best: Lithium in Chile

I just returned from the Atacama desert in Chile, where I was surprised to discover that 30% of world Lithium production comes from the Salar de Atacama. This huge salt flat covers ~3000 square km and is the driest (non-polar) …

2017-10-29 10:15   Click to comment

Clive Best: Carbon Budgets

It started as a nice simple idea: There is a finite amount of Carbon that humanity can burn before the planet warms above 2C. This idea was based on  AR5  Earth Systems Models (ESMs) ‘showing’ that the relationship between global …

2017-10-03 17:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Calculating global temperature anomalies using three new methods.

Abstract Deriving global temperatures anomalies involves the surface averaging of normalized ocean and station temperature data that are inhomogeneously distributed in both space and time. Different groups have adopted different averaging schemes to deal with this problem. For example GISS …

2017-09-05 14:21   Click to comment

Clive Best: Global absolute temperature

Is there such a thing as a global absolute temperature of the earth’s surface? The temperature at any point on the earth’s surface is forever changing, hour to hour, night to day and with the seasons.  A  global average temperature …

2017-08-14 13:03   Click to comment

Clive Best: “Unprecedented” Rainfall ?

A recent Met Office press release , which was taken up by the BBC and most national newspapers, claimed the following: “New innovative research has found that for England and Wales there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new monthly …

2017-07-29 17:07   Click to comment

Clive Best: How to normalise temperature anomalies

Update 2/7/17: I used the wrong GISS data (land only) in the comparison as pointed out by @cce! Agreement now is reasonably good for all temperature series. This is my crib sheet for comparing temperature anomalies across ground and satellite …

2017-06-30 11:31   Click to comment


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