Site: Clive Best

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Clive Best: Updated monitors of UK Power Generation

I have updated my monitoring of UK Power production to include Solar Energy. These are calculated by the University of Sheffield on behalf of the National Grid. Solar Energy and embedded wind farms are not metered centrally but appear as …

2017-06-20 15:52   Click to comment

Clive Best: Central England Temperatures – Spring Record

The Met Office announced that this Spring saw record temperatures in  Wales and Northern Ireland. England was 2nd warmest behind 2011, while Scotland was  fifth warmest. However it was the Central England Temperature (CET) record which seems to have hit …

2017-06-16 19:05   Click to comment

Clive Best: Mid Pliocene Warm Period

Is the warm period in the Mid Pliocene analogous to today’s warming climate? If so can we use it to infer future temperature rise? This is what Wikipedia says: The mid Pliocene warm period is considered a potential analog of …

2017-06-15 15:55   Click to comment

Clive Best: Blog exchange with ATTP

The academic blogger who goes by the slightly pretentious name of … andthentheresPhysics is a dogged character who never concedes any point. When you think you have him pinned down, he wriggles out and insists on having the last word. …

2017-06-13 20:45   Click to comment

Clive Best: April H4.5-ST = 0.80C

The average anomaly for April 2017 of HADCRUT4.5  using Spherical Triangulation (ST) is 0.80C. This is 0.06C higher than the standard 5 degree gridded result (0.74C). It is the years which have high Arctic anomalies which differ the most. Here …

2017-05-27 21:12   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical triangulation of Hadcrut4.5 = Cowtan & Way

The spatial integration of irregular temperature data (CRUTEM4) using spherical triangulation removes any coverage bias.  I have made a spherical triangulation of the CRUTEM4 station data combined with HSST3 ocean temperature data. This is essentially Hadcrut4.5, but instead of using a (lat,lon) …

2017-05-20 18:54   Click to comment

Clive Best: The Ed Hawkins zonal animation

There is a new animation by Ed Hawkins which shows a comparison of zonal mean temperatures with latitude, between observations and models. It is a very nice animation but it all looked a little bit too good to me, so …

2017-05-17 11:04   Click to comment

Clive Best: Decadal Temperature Spatial Averages

The ten year averages of temperature anomalies within cells of an icosahedral grid  covering the earth’s surface are shown below.  The images are taken from four different directions. To view each decade yourself using WebGL follow the first set of header links. To enlarge …

2017-05-06 18:38   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical temperature averaging using Icosahedral grids

I reckon that Spherical triangulation of monthly global temperatures is by far the most honest way to present temperature data, but it has one drawback. You cannot make annual or longterm averages because the triangular mesh is forever changing from one month to another. To make such …

2017-05-04 19:12   Click to comment

Clive Best: 3D visualisation of Earth Science data

WebGL is a Javascript implementation of OpenGL which runs via your web browser locally on your graphics hardware. Nick Stokes has developed an interface to visualise 3D global  data such as temperatures on the earth. Here is an example for my March 2017 data. …

2017-04-28 15:35   Click to comment

Clive Best: Climate Change pattern similar to weather

These two animations show monthly global temperature anomalies from 1990 to 2017. There seems to be a multi-annual anticyclonic circulation of  air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere with a stronger cyclonic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Multi-annual temperature distributions would appear to follow the …

2017-04-25 10:57   Click to comment

Clive Best: Nights warm faster

NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) publishes 3 different monthly temperature sets for each of the ~7000 weather stations. 1) Average Temperatures 2) Minimum Temperatures 3) Maximum Temperatures. Seasonal variations are averaged out over a 30 year normalisation period to …

2017-04-19 10:28   Click to comment

Clive Best: Visualising 20 years of Climate Change

I have been experimenting with different ways to visualise triangulated global temperature data in 3D. Here are the monthly anomaly values for the last 20 years. Of course you can only see one side of the earth at a time, so …

2017-04-17 15:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Two Cold Winters

The coldest winter months seen  in Europe over the last 150 years have been 1963 and 2010. They have remarkably similar temperature distributions due to strong negative Arctic Oscillations pulling Arctic air down over Europe and America. As a result …

2017-04-03 06:46   Click to comment

Clive Best: Visualising Spherical Grids

I have found a much faster way to display spherical grids based on IDL object graphics. This uses OGL hardware support. I chose the warmest month ever recorded (March 2016) to show  results. First here is the grid rotated about …

2017-03-30 03:19   Click to comment

Clive Best: Spherical Triangulation

After 5 days on Heron Island and a narrow escape from Cyclone Debbie, I am now back to spherical gridding! The most elegant method for spatial integration of irregular temperature data must surely be spherical triangulation over  the earth’s surface. …

2017-03-28 07:15   Click to comment

Clive Best: European Winters

The technique of triangulation of station data allows a neat way of visualising regional “climate change” and also the year to year variation.  Here are two animations for Europe. First a replay of 2016. The second animation shows all winter …

2017-03-14 09:23   Click to comment

Clive Best: A new Global Temperature Calculation

In recent posts I have been combining GHCN V3C station data with Hadley HADSST3 Ocean data. The station data are located at specific locations, while HADSST3 data are recorded sporadically within a regular 5×5 degree grid. In addition active station locations …

2017-03-12 21:33   Click to comment

Clive Best: Tweaking Global Temperature Data

The “kriging” biases described in the previous post can be mostly avoided by using  ‘spherical’ triangulation. This treats the earth as a sphere and triangulates all measurement points onto the earth’s surface.  In this case vertex angles no longer add …

2017-03-11 00:07   Click to comment

Clive Best: Kriging biases in global temperature data

I have made a new calculation of global temperatures using 7300 NOAA/NCDC V3c station data combined with HadSST3 ocean temperature. For the ocean data I use cell locations only where measurements exist for a given month.  I then make a (lat,lon) triangulation …

2017-03-03 08:10   Click to comment

Clive Best: Kriging of Hadcrut4.5 data

Here  is the result of a Gaussian ‘kriging’ of  Hadcrut4.5 temperature anomalies for February 2016. This is essentially what Cowtan & Way do. This clearly shows why the global average of the kriged data gives larger values than Hadcrut4.5 when anomalies at …

2017-02-21 12:34   Click to comment

Clive Best: Cowtan & Way airbrushing

The Cowtan & Way version of Hadcrut4 uses a kriging technique to extrapolate values into those parts of the world where there are no direct measurements. Originally I had assumed that this fit was guided by the use of UAH …

2017-02-20 15:04   Click to comment

Clive Best: Temperature data averaged 3 ways

How should you calculate annual global temperature data? We start with Hadcrut4.5 gridded monthly data defined on a 5×5 degree grid and then form the global area weighted average in 3 different ways. Integrate the annual anomaly  over month,lat & …

2017-02-14 18:51   Click to comment

Clive Best: Meridional warming

In this post I am going to present global temperature data in a different way to highlight how the earth cools by transporting heat from the tropics to the poles. This shows that enhanced CO2 warming is mainly concentrated in northern latitudes. To do …

2017-02-02 10:47   Click to comment

Clive Best: Does Antarctica initiate glaciations?

Attempts to explain the last million years of glacial cycles have concentrated mainly on the growth of Northern Ice sheets. Traditionally the summer insolation at 65N is thought to control the growth and extent of ice sheets, with interglacials coinciding …

2017-01-31 18:08   Click to comment

Clive Best: Central England Temperatures 1659-2016

There has been no change in UK average temperatures in summer(JJA) or in Spring(MAM) for the last 367 years. The two hottest summers were 1826 (17.6C) and 1976(17.8C). I remember 1976 as the perfect summer with two months of continuous sunshine, causing a …

2017-01-28 17:31   Click to comment

Clive Best: Do Global Temperatures make sense?

How would you measure the temperature of the earth from mars? Well you could measure the infra red spectrum of the earth and then fit it to a black body spectrum to derive T. If you did that you would get an answer of about …

2017-01-27 16:14   Click to comment

Clive Best: Carbon Circular logic

The cornerstone of climate science must be the enhanced greenhouse effect caused by rising CO2 levels. Therefore understanding how CO2 may increase in the future is of fundamental importance, and you would assume that any Earth Systems Model(ESM) should as a minimum be able …

2017-01-05 18:26   Click to comment

Clive Best: Bern Model when emissions stabilised at 2013 levels

The Bern model has been used by IPCC for emission scenarios since SAR in 1995. We will now use it to extrapolate CO2 levels 500 years into the future with annual emissions fixed at 2013 levels (~10 GT C/year). All values are expressed …

2016-12-23 17:29   Click to comment

Clive Best: A realistic CO2 stabilisation scenario

This is a guest post by “Frank” based on his comment to  Stabilising Climate. He argues that CO2 levels will stabilise at ~520 ppm, which agrees with an estimate given by Ferdinand  Engelbeen here quoted below: My rough estimate is that with the current emissions …

2016-12-21 15:02   Click to comment


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